142
FXUS61 KAKQ 070110
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
910 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across southeast portions
of the area tonight. Very warm and humid conditions continue
through the middle of next week with daily chances of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 845 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- All Heat headlines have been discontinued.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible this evening and overnight
  across mainly southeast portions of the area with heavy rain
  possible.

The latest WX analysis indicates a weak sfc cold front not too
far to NW of the FA. Aloft, a ridge is in place from the eastern Gulf
coast to the S Mid- Atlantic with a trough over the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, and another well offshore centered near
Bermuda. A pre- frontal sfc trough extends from the NJ coast
SSW into the local area. Widespread convection S of the local
area from GA to central NC likely inhibited storm development
locally to some extent. The storms over central NC continue to
spread ENE this evening, so rain chances increase to likely
through the next few hrs over interior NE NC, with scattered/high
chc PoPs into SE VA. A very moist airmass remains in place with
the latest mesoanalysis showing PWATs of 2.1-2.3" across the SE
half of the area, with significant drying to the NW (PWATs
lower to ~1.5"). All heat headlines have ended though it
remains very warm and humid with temperatures in the 80s and dew
pts in the upper 60s far NW to the mid/upper 70s SE.

The cold front that`s still to our NW will likely make it to
central VA overnight. The highest coverage of tstms will likely
be through around 2 am, and some chc PoPs linger across far SE
portions of the FA through ~5am though gradually diminishing
with time. Given very high PWATs and weak shear, heavy rain will
be possible with any storms, especially if storms train with
>1" of rain possible in a very short time. WPC has SE portions
of the FA under a slight risk for excessive rainfall with
marginal for the remainder of the FA. Additionally, an isolated
strong to marginal severe storm can`t be ruled out though this
threat has diminished with the loss of daytime heating. Lows
tonight range from around 70F NW to the mid- upper 70s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 845 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday through Tuesday,
  mainly during the afternoon and evening.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 95-105F each day.

A few showers are possible during the morning (mainly S/SE).
Sunday will feature more clouds as the front very slowly tries
to make its way southward before stalling across far S/SE VA
Sunday afternoon. The front will serve as a focal point for
scattered aftn/evening tstms. The highest PoPs (40-60%) are in
SE VA/NE NC, and the latest CAMs are also hinting at scattered
showers/tstms w/ the seabreeze over the eastern shore (PoPs to
20-40%). No more than isolated convection is expected elsewhere.
Convection should quickly diminish after 9-10 PM...isolated
40-50 mph gusts are possible in the strongest storms but the
main threat with any storms will be heavy rainfall. Still hot
and humid on Sun (especially across E/SE VA and NE NC where heat
indices may approach 105F due to dew pts in the mid- upper 70s
although temps won`t get much above 90F due to increased cloud
cover). It will actually be hotter (lower-mid 90s) across
central/NW portions of the FA where there will be a bit more
sunshine, but dew pts look to mix out more in the upper 60s to
around 70F with drier air filtering in from the NW, so heat
indices will only top out in the upper 90s to around 100F.


The front washes out by Monday as the low-level flow becomes SSE
area-wide. Highs mainly in the upper 80s-lower 90s (heat indices
generally 100-105F) with isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms
(best chance in the Piedmont with lower chances closer to the
coast). Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a bit on Tue as
a trough picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region.
This will result in slight height rises over the FA with low-level
southerly flow. A few aftn/evening tstms are possible, with the
highest coverage along/west of I-95 with lesser coverage near the
coast (which will be closer in proximity to the offshore ridge).
Highs Tue in the lower-mid 90s inland with upper 80s-lower 90s near
the coast. Heat indices will top out in the 100-105F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon and
  evening showers and storms.

Daily chances for showers/tstms (highest during the aftn/evening)
will continue through the remainder of the week as we will be under
weak S-SW flow aloft in between broader troughing to our NW and
ridging offshore. Several shortwaves will cross the area during
the latter part of next week into next weekend. With deep
moisture likely remaining in place along with weak flow aloft,
showers/tstms will be the result. PWs may remain aoa 2.0"
through much of mid-late next week...especially near the coast.
While there likely won`t be as much of a severe threat, locally
heavy rainfall is likely in spots. Wednesday will be the
hottest day of the period with highs in the lower-mid 90s (and
heat indices of 100-105F), with highs mainly in the 85-90F range
from Thu-Sat with more cloud cover/higher precip chances. Lows
mainly between 70-75F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail to start the TAFs, and will generally
persist overnight and on Sunday. However, local IFR-LIFR flight
restrictions will be possible mainly across SE VA and NE NC in
heavy downpours with scattered showers/tstms (along with gusty
winds to ~30kt). Lingering isolated- scattered showers (and
perhaps a few tstms) still possible through ~12Z in the far SE.
In addition, a period of MVFR CIGs is possible late tonight-
Sun AM at PHF/ORF/ECG (best chc being at ECG). It should quickly
become VFR by the middle of Sunday morning. Scattered
showers/tstms are expected to redevelop INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG
Sunday aftn/evening (along a stalled frontal boundary), and at
SBY with potential seabreeze. PoPs no higher than 20% at RIC.
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/storms (mainly during the aftn/evening timeframe).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...

Late this aftn, a weak cold front was over central portions of
the local area. SSE winds 5-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt
in advance of the front were across the waters. Seas were 2-4 ft
and waves were 1-2 ft.

SCAs have been cancelled for the nrn coastal waters. There could
be isolated to sctd showers and tstms over the srn waters this
evening, where a few storms may require Special Marine Warnings
due to strong wind gusts. The cold front will slowly approach
tonight, before stalling/dissipating over or near the local
waters on Sun. Predominately sub-SCA winds are then expected
Sun into Wed, generally running around 5-15 kt out of the S or
SE. There is a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches
into this evening. Then, there is a moderate rip current risk
for the northern beaches on Sun, with a low risk south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs were set today (7/6). See below for actual high
temps:

- RIC: 99 (Record 105/1977)
- ORF: 95 (Record 102/1881)
- SBY: 94 (Record 102/2010)
- ECG: 94 (Record  99/2012)


Through 8PM EDT, Record High Minimum Temperatures have been
tied at ORF/SBY and set at ECG. See below for actual min temps. If
temperatures do not drop below these values through 1 am EDT
(12am LST), then RERs will be sent.

- RIC: 76 (Record 80/2012)
- ORF: 80 (Record 80/1999)
- SBY: 77 (Record 77/2012)
- ECG: 79 (Record 78/1999)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AJB/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ