959
FXUS61 KAKQ 301943
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will bring hot and humid
conditions through Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the
west Tuesday, and slowly crosses the local area Tuesday night
through Wednesday, bringing an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Mainly dry conditions are expected late in the
week into next weekend as high pressure brings somewhat lower
humidity to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected late this
  afternoon/evening, primarily over the N/NW zones where an
  isolated strong to severe storm is possible.

High pressure, surface and aloft remains anchored offshore of
the Southeast coast. There is a subtle lee-side trough over the
Piedmont. Isolated showers/tstms have develop along the sea-
breeze over the Delmarva and in vicinity of the surface trough.
Otherwise, seasonally hot and humid with temperatures in the
lower 90s (80s at the immediate coast), dewpoints in the lower
to locally mid 70s, and heat indices in the upper 90s to lower
100s. Convective coverage should remain rather isolated through
the late afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest
PoPs, 30-40%, across central VA N of the RIC metro. Convection
wanes overnight. Warm and humid with lows in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Frontal passage Tuesday night will bring numerous showers and
  thunderstorms to the area with a Marginal to Slight SVR Risk
  and a Marginal to Slight ERO risk for day 2 (Tue AM through
  early Wed AM).

- The front will be slow to push SE, likely stalling near VA/NC
  border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
  Wednesday (Marginal ERO for Wed in SE zones).

A cold front will advance towards our area from the NW Tuesday.
PW values increase to in excess of 2.0" as the front approaches
Tuesday afternoon. A little better flow aloft arrives later
Tuesday aftn and evening associated with the upper trough,
especially across the northern tier of the area. This could
result in improved storm organization and the entire area is in
a marginal severe risk for Tuesday, with a Slight Risk for the
northern tier of the local area from Louisa Co. to Dorchester
Co. Timing from the severe threat will generally be during the
late afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, locally heavy
rain is possible with the aforementioned moisture rich airmass,
and WPC has a Slight risk over northern portions of the FA and a
Marginal into SE VA. The heavy rain threat should linger later
into the evening compared to the severe threat. There is still
some question as to mid level lapse rates (the NAM is showing
somewhat better values in the 6-6.5C range Tuesday night, but
the GFS remains weaker). Overall, the main threat will be
damaging wind gusts with hail still a fairly minimal concern.
Hot and humid Tuesday, but not unusual for the start of July
ahead of the front with high temperatures ranging from the mid
90s SE (where PoPs stay fairly low through most of the day), to
around 90F in the piedmont. Peak heat indices in the upper 90s W
to near 105F SE.

30/12z guidance continues to trend slower with the front as it
pushes SE Tuesday night into Wednesday, keeping increased rain
chances to SE VA and NE NC through Wed aftn, although there will
likely be a late night/early morning diurnal weakening, before
coverage increases Wednesday afternoon. The primary hazard
Wednesday will be heavy rain as PW values remain at or above
2.0" ahead of the front. However, a few highly localized strong
wind gusts are possible given moisture laden updrafts in a high
PW airmass. High temperatures drop into the 80s Wednesday with
PoPs ranging from 15-30% N to 60-80% S with the front lingering
over the local area. 30/12z EPS/GEFS continue to show the front
pushing S of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with PW
values dropping to 80-90% percent of normal Thursday. A
secondary cold front approaches from the N Thursday. However,
PoPs are generally < 15% given a drier airmass, with 15-20% near
the Albemarle Sound. High temperatures return to the lower 90s,
with heat indices in the mid/upper 90s as dewpoints drop into
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through Independence Day and the following weekend.

- Lower dew points will bring some relief to the area.

The secondary cold front moves through the region Thursday
night. By Friday, surface high pressure builds over the eastern
Great Lakes and moves SE into the local area. Dewpoints are
forecast to only be in the low-mid 60s into central VA to the
upper 60s SE. Highs Friday are in the mid 80s to near 90F behind
the secondary front, with lows Friday night dropping into the
60s for most of the area, so some relative relief (at least for
early July standards) is expected. Upper ridging will start to
build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by next weekend.
Highs trend back toward the 90s, but dewpoints will be slower to
recover and mainly dry conditions are expected for the
Independence Day holiday weekend. More humid conditions along
with low chances of diurnal showers/tstms arrive early next week
well in advance of another cold front moving into the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast as of
18z, with a frontal boundary lingering N of the region. VFR with
developing aftn CU and a SW wind of 8-12kt, which is gusting to
15-20kt toward the coast. Showers/tstms have developed along the
sea-breeze E of SBY, with some isolated convection developing
over S-central VA. The probability of tstms directly impacting
any of the terminals this aftn/evening is 20% or less, so
thunder has not been included in the 30/18z TAFs. Continued VFR
and becoming mostly clear tonight with a 5-10kt SSW wind. VFR
conditions prevail Tuesday. Shower/tstm chances increase to
20-30% 18-21z Tuesday from RIC-SBY, and closer to 00z toward
the coast as a cold front approaches from the NW. Any
showers/tstms have the potential to produce brief flight
restrictions, mainly in vsby from heavy rain along with locally
strong wind gusts.

The cold front will be slow to cross the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday with occasional showers/tstms capable of
producing brief flight restrictions, again mainly vsby in heavy
rain. VFR Thursday through Saturday as drier air builds into
the region behind the cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories go into effect tonight through early
  Wednesday for most of the local waters.

- Benign marine conditions return Wednesday afternoon through the
  extended period.

High pressure continues to dominate from the southwest, resulting in
SW winds between 10-15 kt with a few gusts greater than 15 kt in the
coastal waters. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon into
tonight as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the next frontal
passage. Small Craft Advisories go into effect for coastal waters
south of Parramore Island and the Currituck Sound at 7 PM, with
winds ramping up to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. The Ches. Bay
and lower James river will follow, with SCA beginning at 10 PM with
winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds will likely have a
brief decrease in the late morning/early afternoon Tuesday, as the
marine layer becomes more stable, but will increase once again
Tuesday afternoon and evening. SCA for the northern coastal waters
will go into effect 11 AM Tuesday as winds and seas increase late
morning. Waves will peak in the bay early morning Tuesday at 2-3 ft
with an occasional 4 ft wave. Late afternoon/evening, seas will peak
at 3-5 ft. Winds and seas remain elevated through early Wednesday
morning before starting to taper off. Looking at the extended
forecast, benign marine conditions will resume by mid-week and area
expected to continue through the holiday weekend.

The rip current risk is currently low for all beaches, but will be
moderate tomorrow for all beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ633-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC/NB