Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
427 FXAK67 PAJK 082258 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 258 PM AKDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SHORT TERM... Quick hits: -Quiet weather slowly comes to an end later tonight. -Clouds increase tonight with rain moving in tomorrow. -Winds remain on the lighter side until the front arrives Tuesday, then brief elevated winds are possible, as the front passes, before relaxing for Tuesday night. Expected Weather impacts: -Light rain could cause rivers to rise, but river levels will remain well below flood stages -Brief elevated marine winds are possible along the front as it moves inland. Satellite imagery over the gulf shows an area of low pressure spinning near the intersection of 50N and 150W, about 800 miles SW of Prince of Wales Island. Way out there for now but this low will be our weather maker for the next few days as it moves into the gulf. 500mb ridging will stay in place over the panhandle for tonight. As the previously mentioned low tracks northward, into the central gulf, the ridge will slide east into Canada. Surface low pressure center will move northward and the associated front will approach the panhandle. The front looks to arrive along the coast late tomorrow around, say around 9AM to noon. The front will try to track into the panhandle but at the same time, the low will spin and pull the front away from the panhandle. So forcing from the front will be limited, keeping winds around 5 to 15 knots and rain rates on the lighter side. As far as the rain goes, for the northern half of the panhandle, kept `chance` (30 to 50% PoPS) wording in the forecast for Tuesday morning with rain `likely` (60% to 70%) by Tuesday afternoon. Raised PoPS to 80+% by Tuesday night. For the southern half, chance PoPS start sliding into the forecast by Tuesday afternoon with `likely` by Tuesday night. 80%+ PoPS don`t show up till early Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/... Overview: Low pressure system over the AK Gulf keeps an active weather pattern for SE AK. Mid week front producing moderate rainfall. Precip chances continue into the weekend with onshore low and additional system tracking in. Surface low over the gulf and associated weather front will cross over the region Wednesday. Long fetch of moisture along the front from the south as depicted by IVT values will produce periods of moderate rainfall. 24 hour rain totals of half an inch to up to an inch Wednesday. Daily amounts are above normal but still with in typical range for this time of year. For now no major impacts anticipated but some rises in rivers and streams likely. As the low weakens to an open wave trough late week followed by a ridge of high pressure the resulting on shore flow will keep post frontal shower activity going. The next system drops down over the Aleutians but weakens just as another stronger system moves in following a similar path. Beyond the weekend ensembles show the active pattern continues. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions continue across most of the panhandle this afternoon with the exception of Yakutat where CIGs have been bouncing between VFR and MVFR with the occasional IFR. These conditions are expected to continue into the evening and overnight hours as clouds continue to move into the area as the low to the south continues to work northward. Most places should stay VFR during this time with the exception of a few places that might drop to IFR/LIFR. Near the latter half of the TAF period, MVFR CIGs are expected to become more prevalent due to the increase in clouds. Most precip should hold off for most locations with the exception of the NE Gulf coast which could see rain before other locations. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GJS LONG TERM....PRB AVIATION...SF Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau