360
FXAK67 PAJK 062239
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
239 PM AKDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...High pressure continues to dominate conditions over the
panhandle. This will allow for a continued marine layer to remain
in place over the Outer Coast from Baranof island northward.
Farther inland, marine layer clouds extend northward from Point
Gardner up through Skagway and Haines. Temperatures continue to
remain in the mid fifties to low sixties with the extended cloud
cover. To the south, clear skies have continued which has been
allowing for warmer conditions with temperatures reaching into the
sixties and seventies. With the continued marine layer clouds
across the central and northern panhandle, drizzle was added into
the forecast for the likelihood of more drizzle occurring across
the area.

.LONG TERM...Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains
in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. An
active pattern returns mid week.

On Monday, the ridge will remain strong with anticyclonic flow
aloft. The result is a clearing of skies throughout the panhandle
with temperatures in many areas hitting above 70 degrees. Naturally,
typical sea breezes will develop, and areas around Point Couverden,
Cross Sound, and Northern Lynn Canal will increase wind speeds in
the afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the calmer weather before clouds and
potentially rainy and windy pattern sets in mid week.

Wednesday begins an active pattern for the panhandle with the
entrenched ridge slowly being broken down on Tuesday. Model
consistency on this particular front has not been ideal, but what
can be said is that winds will generally increase to at least 15-20
knots in the inner channels with the fronts passage. Towards the
north, troughing in the Yukon and northern British Columbia will
lead to dropping surface pressure. With the rising pressure in the
post frontal environment, it will result in a tightening gradient in
northern Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet. Currently, gusts to 40 mph near
Skagway are expected, but changes in placement of the troughing
could lower or raise wind speeds.

Beyond the mid week, ensemble means were largely used to make
generalizations about the upper air pattern. Ensemble spread was too
large with individual shortwaves moving along an active, trough
pattern. Ultimately, what can be said is the pattern will remain
active, but individual features cannot be determined at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...So far today, the area has been split in two by two
very different weather patterns.

Areas along and south of Frederick Sound have had VFR conditions
with clear to mostly clear skies with winds on the lighter side.
Going forward, these conditions should continue through tonight, and
into tomorrow.

Areas north of Frederick Sound have improved since this morning to
mostly VFR conditions. There are a couple of outliers to all this,
the Yakutat and Elfin Cover areas are seeing times of LIFR
conditions due to CIGs near 500 feet.

Going forward, as a ridge builds over the gulf, any leftover rain
should fade out and CIGs should continue to rise. So overall
improving conditions are expected to high-end MVFR to VFR. There is
some evidence of brief lowered conditions overnight, but those
conditions would improve quickly around 6AM to 9AM Sunday
morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-644.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS

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