648
FXAK69 PAFG 052132
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 PM AKDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet pattern continues over much of the state through the
weekend. The Interior will see rain likely Saturday morning and
continuing into Sunday. Northwest coast and from Galena north
will see rain likely late tonight into Saturday. The Brooks
Range will see a rain/snow mix Saturday into Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...Models in good agreement regarding
PoPs for the Interior over the weekend. A strong shortwave will
move across the Bering Strait and into the Northern Interior on
Saturday. Westerly flow over the Interior Today will become more
southwestly on Saturday. This is a good set up again for wetting
rains over much of the Interior. Another piece of energy will
enhance rainfall over the Interior on Sunday. This shortwave is
slow moving and rain chances will linger over the Interior on
Monday. Another upper low drops down from the Arctic Monday night
into Tuesday bringing more precip to the west coast.



Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain showers tapering off from west to east this afternoon with
some gusty winds around 10 to 20 mph. Highest winds this
afternoon over higher terrain, a wind advisory is still in
effect for the Eagle Summit area through 10 pm this evening.
Winds elsewhere diminishing this evening. Windy conditions return
tomorrow but under advisory level. The strongest winds appear to
be in the AK Range passes Saturday evening through Sunday morning.
The main area of concern will be near Isabel Pass where wind
gusts may be as high as 40-50 mph.

Rain, possibly heavy at times develops over the Central Interior
again Saturday morning and persists into Sunday. Another 0.50 to
one inch expected through Sunday afternoon. Some areas could
see more than one inch. Rain will cause river rises but no
flooding is expected at this time. Rain chances could linger into
Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...The next round of precip hits
northwest Alaska and areas from Galena north on Saturday into
Sunday morning before tapering off. Monday`s rain chances may stay
from Galena south, though there is some uncertainty. Nonetheless,
rainfall totals through Monday are around 0.25-0.50" in the
Seward Peninsula and 0.50-1.00" in the Western Interior with the
higher elevations potentially over 1 inch. Another front drops
down from the Arctic Monday night into Tuesday bringing more
precip to the west coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Widespread rainfall continues today with the heaviest holding
south of Utqiagvik. Rainfall amounts around a tenth of an inch are
expected in Utqiagvik with the rest of the North Slope and Brooks
Range around 0.50 to 1 inch. Temps cool on Saturday and there
could be a rain/snow mix, or a complete changeover to snow from
the Brooks Range northward Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Accumulating snow is not expected along the coast or in the Arctic
Plain, but locations above 3000 feet in the Brooks Range may see
a slushy coating of snow. It will be difficult to accumulate
anything given the previous warm temperatures but highest
elevations near Atigun Pass could see 3 to 5 inches along the
Highway. Otherwise, colder weather continues on Monday with the
chance for snow showers.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Looking towards the end of the week, ensembles still diverge a
bit, as expected, but it is leaning towards slightly warmer
temperatures in the east, closer to seasonal norms and
cooler/wetter in the west/north. Isolated thunderstorms could
return to the Interior by end of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
As SW winds persist, expect sea level heights to remain about
0.5-2 feet above the normal high tide line this weekend from Nome
South. The highest water levels are expected at Koyuk with 4-5
feet of water level rise through this weekend. Those with items
on the beach should continue to take precautions as water levels
remain high until the beginning of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of wetting rains arrives tomorrow morning in the
Western Interior and spreads over the Central Interior.
Rain, possibly heavy at times develops over the Central Interior
Saturday afternoon and persists into Sunday. Another 0.50 to one
inch expected through Sunday afternoon. Some areas could see more
than one inch. In terms of wind, southwest winds do increase
today in the White Mountains and along the Steese Highway, east of
Twelve Mile Summit, where wind gusts to 35 mph are anticipated.
Southerly flow strengthens in the AK Range passes today into
Saturday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially hitting
50 mph in the eastern Alaska Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range from
recent heavy rain, including, but not limited to, the Wulik,
Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams.

In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day
through the weekend as well with the highest rainfall amounts
upwards of 1.00-2.00". The highest amounts should be expected in
the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and
streams.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ834.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$