


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
505 FXAK68 PAFC 061310 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 510 AM AKDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Ridging over the North Slope will continue weakening as a low moves into the Gulf of Alaska and its front stretches along the north Gulf coast with various shortwaves rotating northward into Southcentral. Cloud cover will continue to increase, becoming mostly cloudy to overcast over the next couple of days, and rain will become a prominent feature along the coastal regions and likely a large portion of the Copper River Basin. There is a chance for light rain in Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys on Monday, though some uncertainty remains. Rain is also expected along the eastern portions of the Kenai Peninsula. With persistent easterly flow it is possible rain showers will spill over into the eastern portions and over Cook Inlet on Monday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)... A rex block remains in place over the Alaskan mainland. This is funneling shortwaves from over the interior and across Southwest this morning. Thunderstorms have been observed overnight in the Kuskokwim River valley, which will likely remain north of Bethel. The strongest convective indicators appear to remain closer to McGrath and Russian Mission. There is higher confidence that this system will deliver stratiform wetting rains to portions of Southwest, with totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inch expected from Stony River to Aniak, and from Bethel to Togiak. Higher amounts up to 1.20 inches may be possible for the Kilbuck and Ahklun Mountains. Following the departure of this shortwave, drier weather is lined up for the Southwest Mainland Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a North Pacific low south of Amchitka will push gusty winds and moderate rainfall ahead of it as it tracks eastward along the chain. Small craft winds may be possible across portions of Bristol Bay for mid-week. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... The long-term period begins with a shortwave ridge over Southcentral Alaska, weak flow across Southwest Alaska, and a North Pacific low south of the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). The ridge over Southcentral Wednesday looks to move northward and reorient with a more east to west axis across the central interior by Thursday. This will open the door for the North Pacific low to move into the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday. Wettest locations look to be across Kodiak Island, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound with scattered showers for Southwest and interior Southcentral. Steady rains across the Southcentral coast taper off to a more showery regime Friday and Saturday very much like inland locations as the low weakens and energy goes to Southeast Alaska. Further to the west, an upper level shortwave looks to dig southward from northern Kamchatka into the central Bering by Thursday. Rain looks to be mostly confined to the Bering but may make it as far south as the Pribilof Islands and as far east as Nunivak Island. Elsewhere, a ridge across the western Bering will weaken into Thursday and allow for a few weak systems tracking southeastward from southern Kamchatka to move over the Western Aleutians and Bering by Friday. Rain with these systems will be light. The ridge looks to build back across the western Bering by Saturday. Confidence remains low and uncertainty remains high regarding the track of a North Pacific low Thursday through Saturday. Some guidance keeps the low south of the Aleutian Chain (Canadian and somewhat the ECMWF) while some guidance wants to clip the Central/Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN with the front bringing another round of light rain to those areas. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will persist through tonight. Winds become southeasterly and gusty later this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers along the Chugach Mountains this afternoon and evening could move into the vicinity of the terminal. By Monday morning, a wave of energy will likely bring steady rain over the terminal through much of the day, with ceilings dropping below 5000 ft and as low as MVFR. There remains uncertainty with this feature as Anchorage sits on the western edge of where the band of rain is expected to develop, and there are some minor differences in timing with the wave. && $$