


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
936 FXAK68 PAFC 080020 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 420 PM AKDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)... A low in the Gulf continues to track eastward to Southeast Alaska through Tuesday. Numerous shortwaves will continue rotating around the upper-level circulation and drive southwestward over interior Southcentral Alaska through Tuesday before ridging and westerly flow take hold for Wednesday. Showers across the Anchorage area, Matanuska Valley, and western Kenai Peninsula will taper off this evening into tonight. The best chance for isolated thunderstorms the rest of this afternoon and into the evening will along the Alaska Range in the northern Copper River Basin. The setup looks more favorable for isolated thunderstorms to occur for Tuesday afternoon and evening where locations in the western Susitna Valley along the Alaska Range, the Talkeetna Mountains, as well as the northern Copper River Basin could see a few lightning strikes. For Wednesday, expect showers to persist across the Southcentral interior, especially across northern portions of both the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. Isolated thunderstorms are possible once again along the Talkeetna Mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening; however, confidence is somewhat low for lightning strikes to occur due to possible limited instability. Meanwhile, a coastal ridge will strengthen ahead of the next Gulf low slated for Thursday. Southeasterly gap winds will increase Wednesday through Turnagain, the Knik River, and the Copper River Valley. Expect mostly dry conditions through Anchorage, Palmer, and the southern Copper River Basin with the southeast surface flow. Southeast winds peak Wednesday evening before slowly diminishing overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. The next big synoptic weather-maker will come in the form of a North Pacific low and its front moving into the Gulf Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. The front will initially impact Kodiak Island Wednesday with rain and gusty easterly winds. Rain and gusty winds continue for Kodiak Island Thursday as the low lifts to the southern Gulf and the front lifts to the northern Gulf coast. Gale-force winds are expected Thursday across the north- central Gulf extending westward to the Barren Islands. A Barrier jet along the northern Gulf Coast looks to develop Thursday afternoon and evening with a corridor of easterly storm-force gusts just off of the coast. The wettest locations associated with this storm will undoubtedly be along the Southcentral Coast and Kodiak Island. Inland locations will contend with a few showers on Thursday but mainly confined to the coast. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... Currently, the Southwest mainland is in an area of weak flow. This means that calm winds and lower chances for rainfall can be expected. There are exceptions in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and parts of the Kuskokwim Delta near Aniak, which have chances for thunderstorms this afternoon due to elevated instability. This quieter pattern will continue through Wednesday. However, some shortwaves from a low in northern Alaska will drop down and move through the northern Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley during this time. As a result, thunderstorms in the aforementioned regions are possible during the afternoon hours of Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorms in the Kuskokwim Delta will be mainly in the Aniak region, but may briefly stretch towards Bethel Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, the Bering is having a low push through, bringing small craft winds and rainfall to the Western and Central Aleutians. As time progresses, the low will slowly track eastward. Rainfall and higher winds will affect the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday. Behind the low is a weak ridge, which will decrease wind speeds and precipitation chances in the Bering through Thursday. Fronts from the low, which moves into the North Pacific west of Kodiak, will push into Bristol Bay on Thursday, allowing for higher rain chances. Gusty winds are expected out of the Kamishak Gap through New Stuyahok by Thursday. As the low passes into the Gulf of Alaska, precipitation chances and wind speeds will dwindle through Thursday night. Due to increased cloud cover, temperatures will cool into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the inland on Thursday. -JAR && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... The long term begins with a broad trough extending from the Kamchatka Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska with many transient shortwaves/storms. Meanwhile, a strong ridge will build over the Chukchi Sea and northwest Alaska. This pattern will keep weather unsettled throughout our AOR as multiple systems move through the trough and into the southern Mainland. Rain may be moderate at times along the coast but it appears for now that the bulk of the heavier precipitation will be over towards the panhandle. Due to the many features tracking through the area out of the north Pacific, an area that models tend to struggle with, overall forecast confidence for the timing and placement of each feature is low. Generally speaking, temperatures are expected to be at to slightly below normal due to the maritime influence on the region. -CJ && .AVIATION... PANC...Generally, VFR conditions expected even in the light rain showers passing through the area. The best chance for a MVFR ceiling is late tonight after the showers have moved on and more stable air settles in toward morning. Southerly winds around 10 kt, with occasional higher gusts, should persist through the night. && $$