173
FXAK68 PAFC 151226
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 AM AKDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southcentral is expected to remain in an unsettled pattern
through at least midweek, with the upper low over western Alaska
to make slower southeastward progress than previously forecast.
Within southwesterly flow will be the passage of additional
shortwaves across Southcentral, keeping rain chances in the
forecast through at least Wednesday. Expect cooler conditions with
highs in the 50s where cloud cover and rain persist, and highs in
the 60s where any clearing occurs. The best chance for areas
seeing sun tomorrow will be across the Copper River Basin while
showers are expected to lift across the Kenai Peninsula into the
Mat-Su Valleys. Yet another trough is forecast to move through
Southcentral on Tuesday with another round of rain forecast for
the region.

BL / rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The upper level low over western Alaska tracks east towards
Southcentral over the next few days. Multiple shortwaves will
cycle over Southwest and allow rain showers to persist through
Tuesday night, diminishing from west to east by Wednesday morning.
High pressure building over the Bering Sea will push over
Southwest by Wednesday, shifting to a bit of a drier pattern for
mid-to-late week. Areas of patchy fog are possible under the
ridge, primarily over the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea, as well
as the Southwest Coast. The next system approaches the Western
Aleutians late Wednesday night, bringing another round of winds
and rain to the Aleutians.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The persistent upper level low over Southwest Alaska will slide
slowly southeastward as a ridge of high pressure moves across the
Aleutians toward the Mainland. As the upper level low moves into
the eastern Gulf and an elongated front forms along Prince
William Sound coastline, the continued likelihood that showers
and cloudy conditions in  Southcentral will persist through the
weekend remains high. However, the greatest chance for steady
rain showers is in the Cooper River Basin into the weekend as
weak waves move through the area. The Aleutian ridge moving over
the mainland will result in drying conditions and increasing
temperatures across Southwest through the weekend.

DJ

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions will persist through the day today before
scattered rain showers return in the evening. Ceilings will
periodically raise slightly above and below 5000 feet throughout
the day. Shortwaves from an upper level low in the Southwest will
result in periods of rain showers and VFR to MVFR conditions
afterward into Tuesday.


&&
$$