155
FXUS63 KABR 142028
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for strong to severe storms this evening and
  continuing through the overnight hours. Main threats include
  hail around 1" in diameter and wind gusts between 60-75 mph
  (higher gusts possible).

- A return to seasonal, if not slightly below normal temperatures
  are expected for midweek before warming back up by next
  weekend. Mostly dry conditions are anticipated with a couple of
  opportunities for rain chances Tuesday and perhaps again late in
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Just a touch less hot and humid compared to yesterday. Latest look
at obs and all areas are still below 100 degrees for heat indices.
No headlines in place anyway so it appears things are in good shape.
Satellite imagery is revealing an area of smoke drifting southeast
across the southwestern CWA, looking somewhat thick at times
(especially earlier this afternoon). Did increase sky cover grids
slightly to account for this.

It still appears the best potential for strong to severe storms will
be during the evening/overnight period associated with whatever
activity develops across ND and drops southeast into SD. CAMs
continue to offer up different solutions in regards to timing and
areal coverage, leading to a somewhat low confidence forecast in
terms of how this will all evolve. Current thinking is that storms
will develop initially well north of the area, across eastern MT and
parts of ND in response to the digging trough across southern
Canada. Will then watch trends as this activity moves southeast,
trying to make its way into northern/northeast SD into MN. MCS
development is possible, with a track that could take it over the
eastern CWA given the baroclinic boundary in place. If an MCS were
to get going, potential exists for 75+ mph gusts wherever it tracks.

By Monday, surface high pressure will be nudging in from the north,
with slowly stabilizing conditions from north to south. Slightly
cooler air will be working into the region as well, with most areas
back down into the 80s for highs, as dewpoints creep down closer to
60 degrees by 00Z Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The extended portion of the forecast remains fairly unchanged from
previous forecast packages. The upper flow pattern will be
transitioning to a more northwesterly flow aloft across our region at
the start of this period on Tuesday morning. Models and ensemble
solutions prog an upper trough axis will shift southeast out of
Ontario into the western Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday and
into early Thursday. Meanwhile, the western CONUS mid level high
centered across the Four Corners will amplify with ridging building
across the Northern Rockies into Western Canada during through the
middle of the week. By the latter half of the period, we could see
mid level waves riding up and cresting over the top of the ridge and
sliding southeastward toward our region late in the week or this
next upcoming weekend. Those would perhaps give some of us another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

Sfc high pressure will be building in across the Dakotas on Tuesday
and persist through Wednesday and even into Thursday. This will give
our forecast are a break from the heat and high humidity that we`ve
seen the last several days. A cold air advection pattern will drive
in cooler temperatures on low level northerly flow Tuesday into
Wednesday. Daytime readings are projected to be in the 70s to low
80s, which is actually just a bit below normal. The sfc high will
slowly shift east-southeast later in the work week, so by Thursday
into Friday, low level southerly flow returns which should modify
temperatures back closer to seasonal normals. Ensemble progs show
increasing probabilities on the order of about 20-40% that our West
River zones will reach or exceed 90 degrees Friday-Sunday. Mainly
dry conditions should prevail through the first half of the period,
especially eastern zones. Lee side troughing from the Northern High
Plains into the western Dakotas could provide a chance for daytime
showers and storms across our western zones Tuesday. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance suggests that another mid level disturbance
will track across the Northern Plains this next weekend and perhaps
give some of our area chances for precip. Right now, in house
ensemble blend remains mainly dry and we`ll continue to advertise
that trend for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Widely
scattered TSRA/+TSRA are possible across the region late tonight,
and have included VCTS to account for this. Severe storms are
possible with surface wind gusts over 50 knots. MVFR CIGs and IFR
VSBY are possible in any stronger storms that move over a
terminal.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TMT