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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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843 FXUS63 KABR 190526 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation Friday, with the highest chances across central South Dakota. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central South Dakota, which has been highlighted by a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). - Additional chances of precipitation (20 to 40 percent) on Saturday and Sunday. - Confidence is increasing on slightly warmer temperatures by midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 06Z TAFS. UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 No changes to the forecast. See update to the Aviation discussion below... && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The region will be between an upper level trough to the east and a ridge to the west through the near term period. Will see some decent shortwave energy track across the CWA Friday and Friday night. At the surface, high pressure will exit the region to the east tonight as low pressure and its associated frontal boundary reaches the Western High Plains by Friday morning. This boundary will become the focus for precipitation, beginning as early as Friday morning. By the afternoon hours, MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and bulk shear of 25 to 40 knots develop across central South Dakota, which may aid in some strong to severe storms. SPC has highlighted this area with a Marginal Risk, mainly for the potential for convective high wind gusts. May see a few lingering showers into Friday night, but the thunderstorm activity should come to an end with the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 80s. Lows Friday night will be in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Saturday morning we still have that upper level low over far southeast SD and northeast NE. Deterministic models show the low circulating over NE/SD/IA during the day Saturday and moving slightly south to the corner of NE/IA/KS/MO on Sunday before weakening. This will leave us in northerly flow as we are between a trough and a ridge. An area of high pressure moves in from the north along the MT/ND/SD border Wednesday, balanced by a low pressure area to our east. A ridge tries to move into the area during the day Thursday but never quite makes it, leaving us in northerly flow. The best chance for rain will be Saturday and Sunday with some possible afternoon showers/storms. Both days have 25 to 40% chances for precip. Storms are not expected to become severe. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the end of the period. We continue to expect a warming trend through the term to slightly above average temperatures. Highs of upper 80s to around 90 are expected by Thursday. Winds look to remain around normal through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals through the course of the TAF period. Weak, isolated thunderstorms are possible for the KMBG/KPIR terminals during the early morning, with stronger storms possible in the afternoon for those same terminals. Lower probability for any storms for KABR/KATY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Connelly SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Connelly