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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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154 FXUS63 KABR 210212 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 912 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated smoke from Canadian wildfires will filter out the sunshine through Wednesday. - Fog is expected to develop late tonight and again late Sunday night and linger into the mornings, especially east of the James Valley. - There will be daily precipitation chances (20 to 50 percent) through Monday (mainly afternoon and evening activity). - Confidence is increasing for hot temperatures returning by the end of the week and next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Continuing to see a few small thunderstorms over parts of central South Dakota this evening. Also monitoring an area of storms currently tracking south over parts of eastern North Dakota that may reach the area during the overnight hours. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Elevated smoke is being dragged into the northern Plains from Canadian wildfires by the deep upper trough and persistent upper level northerlies. It should stick around through Sunday night and even persist into mid week. Shortwave energy in the upper trough along with abundant low level moisture is helping to generate afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Even with the smoke, temperatures have managed to climb well into the 80s today, easily hitting convective temps and the showers have popped accordingly. This pattern will persist and should have more shortwaves to work with on Sunday. No severe weather is expected due to really weak shear. High levels of llm will lead to fog development late tonight into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Can`t rule out vsby down around a mile or less along I-29 and the Coteau. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The first part of the long term is expected to be relatively quiet with northerly flow dominating the upper level pattern. Once we get to Wednesday, an area of high pressure moves north to south across western SD and a low pressure system slides southeast over MN and WI. This will keep our area in northerly flow. Thursday, a shortwave trough moves along the ridge to our west and pushes it into our area for the weekend and the end of the period. There is a chance (30% or less) for some showers and maybe an isolated storm or two Monday afternoon. After that, any PoPs more than about 25% stay out of our CWA. This could change for Wednesday if the low moves farther west than expected. However, over the past few runs, model tracks haven`t changed much at all. Temperatures are now trending from right around average to about 10 degrees above average by the end of the term. Highs are expected to be in the low 90s by Thursday. Lows by the end of the period are also expected to be around 10 degrees above average, only decreasing to the high 60s or low 70s overnight. Winds are expected to be around or less than 10 mph and gusts less than 15 mph Monday and Tuesday, then return to our normal speeds from Wednesday on. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of the area this evening, but will die off after sunset. There may be some MVFR vsbys in fog late tonight into early Sunday morning, main along and east of the James River Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Sunday afternoon and evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Parkin