Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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505 FXUS63 KABR 160545 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1245 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will slide from northwest to southeast across the region late tonight through Tuesday morning. The overall severe weather threat is low, although areas along and south of US Highway 212 are in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5). The main threat will be 60 mph wind gusts and up to quarter sized hail. Precipitation should exit by Tuesday afternoon. - Below normal temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures may be able to recover to something closer to normal Thursday onward. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Increased sky cover this evening due to increased high clouds and elevated smoke across the region. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with no further changes planned. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 No major changes to the expected overall pattern. An upper level trough will slide out of northern Manitoba toward the great lakes region. Meanwhile an upper ridge extends across the western CONUS. Energy rotating around the base of the trough is expected to bring a northwest to southeast moving round of showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours through Tuesday morning. At the same time surface high pressure will also be building south, with drier low level air to follow. Model dewpoints are only expected in the 50s to near 60. As such, very limited instability across the region. The NBM probs of SB CAPE exceeding 100 J/kg is near zero for much of the CWA, and deterministic models MU CAPE is a few hundred J/KG, maybe exceeding 1000 J/KG along the fringes of our southern CWA. If a stronger storm or two were to get going it would be across this region. This setup also doesn`t allow for a deep moisture profile, and would expect pretty high based convection. This would lend more of a wind threat for any stronger storm that can develop. Quite a bit of uncertainty in coverage and timing, although almost all the CAM solutions have precipitation exiting the region by Tuesday afternoon. Dry conditions are then expected through Wednesday. High pressure and cold air advection will be the general trend. In fact, strong indications (80-95% LREF probs) of 850 MB temperatures dropping into the single digits by Wednesday morning across the far NE CWA. Overall ensemble 2 meter temp spread is around 6 degrees or less area wide, so stuck with the NBM guidance as the going forecast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Overall guidance from the deterministic and ensemble solutions in this period continue to point toward a relatively dry and cooler than normal to around normal temperature trend through the end of the week into early next week. This period begins Wednesday with sfc high pressure building southward across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Dry and comfortable northerly low level flow will lead to daytime dew point temperatures in the 50s and this will likely persist through most of Thursday. A cold air advection will remain in place, especially across our eastern zones on Wednesday, leading to below normal temperatures with highs in the 70s. Even our western and central zones should see below normal readings on Wednesday. The center of the sfc high will slowly drift southeast of our area on Thursday. This will setup low level return flow from the south and begin to gradually modify the air mass back closer to normal toward the end of the work week. Daytime temperature readings will return to the 80s and dew point will climb just a bit back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. The upper flow pattern will have us between an upper trough across the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS and a western CONUS ridge. It`s possible a mid level disturbance or two could crest over the ridge and track across our region late in the week into early next week. This would give us some increased chances for precipitation, however outside of Friday a mostly dry forecast will be maintained. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Other than some morning showers, dry VFR conditions are expected through late Tuesday evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...Serr LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...Dorn