897
FXUS65 KABQ 131747 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1147 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be concentrated over the northern
and western mountains of New Mexico today and on Sunday.
Temperatures will also be warm to hot through the weekend with
readings gaining a degree or two each day. Many lower elevation
areas will reach the mid to upper 90`s each day. Storms will once
again redevelop over the northern and central mountains on
Monday, but they will also begin to expand to the central mountain
chain with a few storms slowly filling into areas in between.
Moisture is forecast to increase significantly Tuesday and even
more-so on Wednesday. This will cause rain chances to increase
Tuesday through the end of the week as numerous showers and
thunderstorms develop each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The center of high pressure in the mid levels is now forecast to
wobble around the NM/CO border today, which is further south than
previously expected. Water vapor imagery shows drier air filtering
over NM from the northeast early this morning. As a result, today
should feature the lowest precipitable water (PWAT) values of the
weekend with values around 0.50-0.80", or about 10-20% lower than
Friday`s values. PWATs are forecast to begin a gradual rebound
starting Sunday as the upper high splits into two lobes with one
just northeast of NM, and a broader anticyclonic circulation over
northern NM/AZ border. Also on Sunday, moist southeasterly return
flow in the low levels is forecast to increase over NM as a wave
over northern Mexico drifts a bit further north over west TX. As a
result, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor
western and north central parts of the forecast area both today and
Sunday, with an uptick in the coverage of storms on Sunday. A few
cells will probably spread westward over central areas early this
evening, then more so Sunday evening. Storm motion both days
looks to be slow and erratic over northern areas, while storms
along and south of I-40 move slowly toward the west. High
temperatures today and Sunday should vary from a few to around 9
degrees above 1991-2020 averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The upper high may settle slightly south of the Four Corners on
Monday with heights possibly lowering to around 594-595
decameters. Steering flow would carry most storms toward the west,
but some northern NM cells may tend to drift a bit slower and
perhaps erratically where winds aloft will remain light.
Convection is modeled to initiate over the central mountains on
Monday, possibly due to a slight backing of surface winds that
would yield a weak upslope component on east faces. Temperatures
may lower by a degree or two, but would still be quite hot in
lower elevation areas Monday.

Monday`s storms are projected to send an outflow out of CO and
into NM which could set the stage for slightly more storms going
into Tuesday, mainly across northern NM zones, but all areas
should have a chance. Temperatures would also likely cool a few
degrees as the upper high weakens and loses definition. A deep
upper low moving across Ontario and into Quebec would send down a
front which could enter Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing
more moisture to fuel an increase in storms.

The PWATs look to start inching above normal Wednesday with many
central to eastern zones reaching close to a 1.0 to 1.2 inch
range. The upper high would strengthen a bit west or southwest of
the Four Corners Wednesday, carrying storms southwestward with
fairly widespread coverage. A very similar scenario will persist
into Thursday and Friday again with numerous cells redeveloping in
the afternoons on the high terrain of western and central zones
before expanding and filling into nearby valleys. The high may
swell a bit closer to the Great Basin on Saturday, but changes to
the moisture distribution and other synoptic features will be
minuscule, and much of the forecast area would observe PWAT rises
to around 1.0 to 1.2 inch Wednesday through Saturday. This will
pose concerns over area wildfire burn scars due to a threat for
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be limited to the northwest
third of NM this afternoon through early evening. Storm motion
will be toward the west up to 10 kt north of Interstate 40 and
west up to 20 kt south. The stronger thunderstorms forecast over
and near the Sangre de Cristo mountains will be capable of
producing brief and erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt. This
convective activity will gradually dissipate after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The upper high is forecast to migrate southeastward over the NM/CO
border today, then lose some strength Sunday before recentering over
northern AZ for the coming work week. Precipitable water values will
decrease some today, then trend gradually upward during the work
week with values generally near and over an inch Tuesday through the
end of the week.  A moist backdoor front will push into the state
Tuesday, then a moist southeasterly return flow is forecast during
the mid to latter half of the week, enabling the PWATs to increase.
Storm motion will be slow and erratic over northern areas today
and Sunday, while cells drift generally westward over southern
areas. Slow and erratic storm motion look to become more
widespread Monday and Tuesday as storms begin developing from
central and western areas further eastward onto the eastern
plains. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast areawide during the middle and latter half of the week as
cells generally travel from north to south. After high
temperatures a few to several degrees above 1991-2020 averages
today through Monday, readings will begin to fall with the front
Tuesday with values near to several degrees below the averages
during the middle and latter half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  64  98  65 /  20  20  10  20
Dulce...........................  94  50  94  52 /  20  30  30  30
Cuba............................  91  58  91  59 /  30  40  20  40
Gallup..........................  94  55  93  56 /  40  40  40  50
El Morro........................  88  58  88  55 /  50  40  60  60
Grants..........................  92  59  92  58 /  40  30  40  50
Quemado.........................  90  59  90  56 /  40  40  70  60
Magdalena.......................  90  64  91  63 /   0  10  30  30
Datil...........................  88  59  88  57 /  20  20  50  40
Reserve.........................  94  56  95  55 /  40  30  70  50
Glenwood........................  97  69  98  65 /  30  30  70  50
Chama...........................  86  51  87  52 /  30  30  50  40
Los Alamos......................  88  64  88  64 /  30  30  40  30
Pecos...........................  88  60  90  59 /  30  20  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  87  47  88  48 /  40  20  50  30
Red River.......................  79  49  80  45 /  40  20  50  30
Angel Fire......................  82  45  83  37 /  40  20  40  30
Taos............................  91  53  92  53 /  30  20  20  30
Mora............................  86  54  87  53 /  30  20  30  20
Espanola........................  95  61  96  62 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Fe........................  89  63  90  63 /  30  20  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  92  62  93  61 /  20  20  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  69  96  68 /  10  20  20  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  68  98  70 /   5  20  10  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  67 100  63 /   5  20  10  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  69  98  69 /   5  20  10  30
Belen...........................  98  64  99  65 /   0  10   5  20
Bernalillo......................  99  68 100  67 /   5  20  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  98  64  99  62 /   5  10   0  30
Corrales........................  99  68 100  67 /   5  20  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  98  66  99  64 /   5  10   0  30
Placitas........................  94  66  95  66 /  10  20  10  30
Rio Rancho......................  98  67  99  69 /   5  20  10  30
Socorro.........................  99  67 100  68 /   0   5   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  63  90  62 /  10  20  10  30
Tijeras.........................  91  64  93  63 /  10  20  10  30
Edgewood........................  92  59  93  60 /  10  10  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  56  94  57 /  10  10  10  30
Clines Corners..................  88  58  89  58 /   5  10  10  20
Mountainair.....................  90  60  91  60 /   5  10  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  90  59  91  59 /   0   0  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  93  64  93  66 /   0   0   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  84  57  85  55 /   5   0  10   5
Capulin.........................  88  59  90  57 /  10  20   5  10
Raton...........................  94  58  94  58 /  10  20   5  10
Springer........................  94  58  95  59 /  10  10  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  87  56  88  57 /  20  10  20  20
Clayton.........................  95  66  97  66 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  91  62  92  63 /   5   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  98  66  98  66 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  94  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  97  65  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  96  66  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  96  66  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  97  66  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  98  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  92  61  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  89  57  91  60 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...33