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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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468 FXUS65 KABQ 091141 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 541 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Storm coverage will increase today and Wednesday. Enough moisture and instability will be present for isolated severe storms as well as heavy rainfall each afternoon and evening favoring areas along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Flash flooding is possible, and recent burn scars will be extremely susceptible. Showers and thunderstorms will focus across western and central New Mexico Thursday through the weekend. High temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for the next few days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 It`s a much quieter night across northern and central NM with just some lingering mid to high level clouds from yesterday`s convection across central areas. The 595 dam upper high remains over the CA Inland Empire and southern Nevada with northwest flow over NM. Higher moisture in the form of dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s have also made its way to the Arizona border. After a quiet morning under mostly clear skies, strong daytime heating along with the higher moisture will result in the development of showers and storms across the mountain ranges along and east of the Continental Divide. Far northwest and west central NM, including Farmington and Gallup, will remain dry due to deep daytime mixing tapping into the northwest flow aloft and pushing the higher moisture back east towards the Rio Grande Valley. Showers and storms over the higher terrain will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding over recent burn scars including the ones surrounding Ruidoso and the HPCC burn scar across the east slopes of the central mountain chain. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for these two areas. Showers and storms will spread into lower elevations across parts of central and eastern NM come the evening. A few storms across the northeast plains extending south to the east slopes of the central mountain chain could become strong to severe due higher bulk and directional shear from the northwest flow aloft. A mesoscale surface high is expected to develop over northeast NM in the wake of the convection this evening. This mesohigh will help send another northeast to east canyon wind and moisture back to the Santa Fe and ABQ Metro areas come the evening hours just before sunset. Gust of up to 35 mph will be possible across eastern ABQ. The higher moisture and east wind will make it as far west as the Arizona border come sunrise Wednesday morning. Convection this afternoon and evening will slowly taper off Tuesday night with activity lingering longest across southeast NM. On Wednesday, the upper high strengthens to 597 dam and nudges a bit northeast to the Great Basin with northerly upper level flow over New Mexico. Additionally, a shortwave trough dives south over the upper Mississippi River Valley on the backside of Beryl`s remnant circulation over the Great Lakes. Between the two synoptic features a piece of the subtropical jet moves over New Mexico with some diffluence aloft over the central mountain chain. This will result in an uptick in shower and storm activity across the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands Wednesday afternoon and evening with storm motion to the south. With a higher risk of flash flooding from multiple rounds of storms, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, South Central Mountains, and surrounding highland zones. WPC has put a slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 out of 4) across the south central highlands and mountains for Wednesday. Additionally, SPC has put a marginal risk for severe storms across south central NM and eastern NM Wednesday afternoon and evening due to the high directional shear in place (southerly surface winds with northerly flow aloft). Outflow from these storms will likely produce another east canyon wind for the ABQ metro Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue into the evening Wednesday. Flash flooding will remain possible and unlike most days, it`s possible that the Sacramento Mountains may receive multiple rounds of precipitation. Most of the precipitation will trail off by midnight. On Thursday, the focus for showers and thunderstorms will be over the high terrain of both western and central NM, with less emphasis across the eastern plains. Storms will move toward the S or SSW which will bring somewhat better chances for precip in the ABQ metro. There is still a good chance for precipitation over both the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon and Sacramento Mountain burn scars, though amounts may not be as great as they will be on Wednesday. On Friday, the upper level high that has been parked over Las Vegas, NV will shift over UT and CO. This will allow storm motion to change again, with most storms moving toward the southwest or west. This will also allow some mid level dry air to move into southeastern portions of the CWA. This is good news in that storms will focus across the northwest half of NM, and should allow for what will likely be a much needed break in the action across the Sacramento Mountain burn scars. That break should continue into Saturday as well. Thereafter, all eyes will be on an inverted trough moving northward from Old Mexico. Models are struggling with the timing of this feature and if it will even make it into NM. If it arrives early next week, the upper high will weaken and push northeastward, and moisture will return allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with little to no storm motion. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Localized IFR conditions from fog in the Moreno Valley, including KAXX, will burn off shortly after sunrise. Showers and storms with localized MVFR conditions develop over the northern, central and southwest mountains beginning 18Z drifting southeast into lower elevations during the afternoon and evening hours. This will impact KLVS, KSRR, KONM during the afternoon and northeast TAF sites including KCAO and KTCC come the evening. A storm or two across northeast NM and the eastern highlands could become strong to severe with gusty winds and large hail being the main threats. Outflows and higher moisture from storms across the central mountain chain and eastern NM pushes through the gaps of the central mountain chain come Tuesday evening bringing another gusty SE wind to KSAF and east wind to KABQ. Peak gusts of around 30 kts are expected, just below Airport Weather Warning criteria, before tapering off overnight. The east wind makes it way to the Continental Divide and impacts KFMN. Some lingering showers across southeast TAF sites overnight including KCVN and KCVS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 No critical fire weather is expected across the forecast area through early next week. Through Wednesday, higher surface moisture will remain in place across central and eastern NM with drier air across far northwest and west central areas in the form of afternoon relative humidity values around 10 percent and dewpoints in the 30s. The higher moisture makes it way to these drier areas of the state late week due to the upper high over the Great Basin shifting east to the central Rockies. Diurnal showers and storms will be focused across central and eastern NM through Wednesday shifting to north central and western NM come Friday and this weekend. Winds will overall remain light with the one exception being from the diurnal storm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 61 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 86 47 87 47 / 30 20 40 20 Cuba............................ 86 53 86 54 / 20 20 30 30 Gallup.......................... 92 50 93 53 / 5 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 87 55 88 56 / 20 20 20 10 Grants.......................... 89 54 90 55 / 20 20 20 10 Quemado......................... 89 56 91 57 / 30 30 40 20 Magdalena....................... 85 62 87 60 / 50 30 60 40 Datil........................... 85 57 86 57 / 50 50 50 20 Reserve......................... 91 52 94 53 / 50 20 60 20 Glenwood........................ 93 65 96 64 / 60 20 60 30 Chama........................... 78 46 77 47 / 50 30 60 30 Los Alamos...................... 80 59 80 59 / 50 30 80 30 Pecos........................... 81 54 79 55 / 50 30 90 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 44 80 42 / 60 60 80 30 Red River....................... 69 44 69 44 / 70 60 80 30 Angel Fire...................... 73 39 73 39 / 70 70 80 30 Taos............................ 82 48 84 49 / 50 40 60 20 Mora............................ 77 49 76 49 / 60 40 80 30 Espanola........................ 86 57 87 57 / 30 30 50 20 Santa Fe........................ 83 58 82 58 / 40 40 80 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 57 86 56 / 30 30 60 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 64 89 63 / 30 30 50 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 64 90 64 / 20 20 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 64 92 63 / 10 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 64 91 64 / 20 20 30 20 Belen........................... 94 62 94 61 / 20 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 92 63 91 63 / 20 20 30 20 Bosque Farms.................... 93 60 93 60 / 10 20 30 30 Corrales........................ 92 62 91 64 / 20 20 30 20 Los Lunas....................... 93 61 94 62 / 10 30 30 20 Placitas........................ 90 62 88 61 / 20 30 50 30 Rio Rancho...................... 91 64 91 64 / 20 20 30 20 Socorro......................... 93 66 95 64 / 30 30 50 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 58 82 57 / 30 40 60 30 Tijeras......................... 88 59 86 58 / 30 30 60 30 Edgewood........................ 87 57 84 54 / 30 40 60 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 54 86 52 / 30 30 60 40 Clines Corners.................. 83 54 80 53 / 50 30 70 40 Mountainair..................... 86 56 85 54 / 40 30 60 40 Gran Quivira.................... 87 56 86 54 / 50 40 70 50 Carrizozo....................... 87 62 86 60 / 50 50 80 50 Ruidoso......................... 77 56 76 54 / 70 40 90 50 Capulin......................... 78 53 83 54 / 60 20 40 10 Raton........................... 83 52 86 53 / 60 20 40 10 Springer........................ 85 53 88 54 / 70 30 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 79 52 78 52 / 60 40 80 20 Clayton......................... 86 59 90 60 / 30 20 20 5 Roy............................. 81 57 84 56 / 60 40 50 20 Conchas......................... 90 61 90 61 / 40 50 40 30 Santa Rosa...................... 88 60 88 59 / 40 40 50 50 Tucumcari....................... 91 61 91 61 / 20 40 30 40 Clovis.......................... 88 64 89 63 / 10 40 40 40 Portales........................ 89 64 90 63 / 5 30 40 40 Fort Sumner..................... 90 63 90 62 / 20 60 40 50 Roswell......................... 94 69 95 67 / 10 20 50 30 Picacho......................... 86 62 83 60 / 50 30 70 40 Elk............................. 81 58 81 57 / 70 30 80 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214- 215-226. Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ214-215-222>224-226-229-239-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...71