792
FXUS65 KABQ 200328 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
928 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Due to the southward progression of showers and storms, have gone
ahead and cancelled the Flood Watch for all areas except the
South-Central Highlands and Mountains this evening.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A very active monsoon pattern is expected through early next week as
a backdoor front combined with multiple upper level disturbances
diving south across the Rocky Mountains will result in widespread
shower and storm activity. Locally heavy rainfall rates greater than
2 inches per hour along with saturated soils from several rounds of
storms will result in a risk for flash flooding for most areas with
the threat higher for urban areas and recent burn scars. Coverage of
storms begins to lower mid week and shift more to western and far
northern areas late week as the upper high over the Great Basin
extends northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 353 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

It`s more of a rinse and repeat day across the state this afternoon
with storms across the northern, southwest, and south central
mountains early this afternoon. The upper high is positioned
somewhere near Flagstaff in northern AZ  with north to northeast
flow and PWATS around 0.8 to 1.1 inches across NM. Outflow
boundaries from these storms over the aforementioned zones will move
into lower elevations across central and most of eastern NM this
evening and these boundary collisions will result in the development
of more storms in the ABQ and Santa Metros. Outflow from storms over
the central highlands look to bring another east wind to the ABQ
Metro this evening with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Showers and storms
will linger longest across parts of south central and eastern NM
with activity basically dissipated early Saturday morning.

An even more active Saturday is expected across the Land of
Enchantment. The upper high will continue to shift westward to near
Las Vegas, NV in response to an upper level trough over the north
central Great Plains diving southeast to the upper Mississippi River
Valley. Convection across the central Great Plains this evening and
tonight will send a backdoor front through eastern NM come late
Saturday morning with upslope surface easterly flow behind the
front. PWATs increase slightly to 1 to 1.1 inches across western and
central NM and 1.2 to 1.4 inches across eastern NM. Subtle
disturbances embedded in the north to northwest flow between the
upper high over the Great Basin and the upper level trough over the
upper Mississippi River Valley along with the increase moisture will
result in an even greater coverage of showers and storms first
across the mountain ranges early Saturday afternoon spreading into
lower elevations across central and northeast NM come the evening
thanks to outflow boundary collisions. QPF amounts come Saturday
evening looks rather impressive with 6 hour amounts for Saturday
evening approaching 1 inch across the RGV and northeast plains. This
is using a blend of NBM and ensemble guidance from the HREF. Storms
will be capable of containing rainfall rates of greater than 2
inches per hour with flash flooding more likely across the area burn
scars and urban areas. COnvection lingers well into Saturday night
due to the upper level disturbances overhead with convection
lingering longest across the Sacramento Mountains, including the
burn scars surrounding Ruidoso, which is very concerning. Given all
the above aformentioned factors, as well as antecedent wet soils
across northern and southwest NM from previous days convection, a
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the zones spanning from the
southwest mountains spanning northeast to northeast NM. This
includes the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Sunday`s overall synoptic pattern looks similar to Saturday with
embedded disturbances tracking south across the state between the
upper high over the Great Basin and an upper level trough/baggy low
over the middle Mississippi River Valley. The big question on Sunday
will be how much cloud debris will be leftover from Saturday`s
convection and if the atmosphere can recover instability wise for
more showers and storms. There will still be upslope east and
southeast flow across most of the state with PWATs similar to
Saturday. Both the NAM and GFS bring widespread convection over
Colorado midday Sunday south into northern, central and eastern NM
Sunday evening and Sunday night. The convection looks to be
maintained well into Sunday night thanks to forcing from a shortwave
over the southern high plains rotating south and east around the
main upper level trough circulation over Iowa and Missouri. The risk
of urban and burn scar flash flooding looks very high with this
setup and the antecedent conditions. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches
with locally higher amounts are possibles across north central,
northeast and east central NM as well as across the RGV (Santa Fe,
ABQ and Socorro). Flash Flood Watches will be issued in subsequent
shifts.

Monday looks a little less active and cooler with storms still
likely over the higher terrain and surrounding highlands travelling
south due to the north flow between the upper high over the Great
Basin and upper level troughing over the central U.S. Diurnal storm
coverage gradually lowers and shifts more towards western and far
northern NM come late next week as the upper level troughing over
the central U.S. moves to the eastern U.S. Additionally, the upper
high over the Great Basin flattens and expands northeast to the
central and southern Rockies in response to upper level troughing
over the Pacific NW. As a result, storm motion changes from north to
south early in the week to northeast to southwest late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, except for brief MVFR conditions in sct/num showers and
storms this evening, then again Saturday afternoon. Storms will
move north to south and favor impacts at KLVS, KSAF and KAEG/KABQ
over other TAF sites. A strong east canyon wind is forecast to
impact KABQ this evening as thunderstorm outflow moves west from
the east side of the mountains, with gusts to around 45kts
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for the next
7 to 10 days. The risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will continue each day through the middle of next week.The risk of
flash flooding will be highest through Monday gradually lowering due
to lower storm coverage as well as shifting to central and western
NM later next week. Storm motion will be generally north to south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  94  64  89 /  20  30  50  30
Dulce...........................  50  89  51  84 /  50  80  70  70
Cuba............................  57  87  55  81 /  60  80  90  60
Gallup..........................  57  91  56  86 /  40  70  70  60
El Morro........................  57  84  56  80 /  60  90  90  70
Grants..........................  59  87  58  81 /  60  80  90  60
Quemado.........................  60  87  58  83 /  70  90 100  70
Magdalena.......................  63  87  61  79 /  50  90  90  60
Datil...........................  58  84  56  78 /  80  90  90  70
Reserve.........................  59  93  56  87 /  70  90  90  80
Glenwood........................  68  96  66  91 /  50  90  90  80
Chama...........................  49  80  48  75 /  50  90  80  90
Los Alamos......................  61  83  59  76 /  50  90  80  80
Pecos...........................  56  81  55  74 /  60  90  80  80
Cerro/Questa....................  47  81  45  74 /  60  90  80  80
Red River.......................  46  71  44  65 /  70  90  80  90
Angel Fire......................  43  74  42  68 /  50  90  70  90
Taos............................  51  85  51  78 /  60  90  80  80
Mora............................  51  78  50  71 /  40  90  80  90
Espanola........................  60  92  59  84 /  50  80  80  70
Santa Fe........................  60  84  58  76 /  60  90  90  70
Santa Fe Airport................  59  87  58  79 /  60  80  80  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  91  64  84 /  60  80  90  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  93  64  85 /  60  70  90  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  94  64  87 /  60  60  90  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  93  65  85 /  60  70  90  50
Belen...........................  65  94  63  86 /  50  70  90  40
Bernalillo......................  65  94  64  86 /  60  70  90  50
Bosque Farms....................  64  94  62  86 /  60  70  90  40
Corrales........................  66  94  64  87 /  60  70  90  50
Los Lunas.......................  64  94  63  86 /  60  70  90  40
Placitas........................  64  89  62  82 /  60  80  90  60
Rio Rancho......................  66  93  64  86 /  60  70  90  50
Socorro.........................  68  97  66  88 /  50  80  90  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  84  58  76 /  60  80  80  60
Tijeras.........................  61  87  59  79 /  60  80  90  60
Edgewood........................  57  87  57  78 /  50  80  80  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  87  55  78 /  50  80  80  60
Clines Corners..................  56  82  55  73 /  60  80  80  60
Mountainair.....................  58  85  57  76 /  60  80  90  60
Gran Quivira....................  59  86  57  76 /  60  80  90  60
Carrizozo.......................  65  89  62  81 /  70  90  90  70
Ruidoso.........................  58  80  56  71 /  50  90  90  80
Capulin.........................  55  79  53  68 /  70  70  50  80
Raton...........................  55  84  54  74 /  50  80  60  80
Springer........................  56  86  56  77 /  50  80  60  70
Las Vegas.......................  54  80  53  71 /  40  90  80  80
Clayton.........................  62  87  61  76 /  60  40  30  70
Roy.............................  59  84  58  75 /  60  70  60  70
Conchas.........................  64  91  63  83 /  60  50  70  60
Santa Rosa......................  63  87  62  78 /  60  60  80  60
Tucumcari.......................  64  91  63  81 /  50  30  50  60
Clovis..........................  67  93  66  81 /  30  50  60  60
Portales........................  67  92  66  85 /  30  40  60  60
Fort Sumner.....................  66  93  66  84 /  40  50  70  60
Roswell.........................  71  97  70  84 /  20  50  70  40
Picacho.........................  65  89  63  79 /  40  80  80  60
Elk.............................  61  88  58  77 /  20  80  80  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
for NMZ206>208-210>224-226>233-237-239>241.

Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ224-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11