Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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865 FXUS65 KABQ 152204 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 404 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Moisture will continue to slowly increase tonight and Tuesday, resulting in a slight uptick in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Stronger storms are forecast over the northeast quarter Tuesday afternoon and evening where torrential rainfall and hail are possible. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast for much of the area Wednesday through the weekend with daily rounds of strong thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds. High temperatures will trend down through the latter half of the week as more clouds and rain move in. This pattern is not forecast to change much going into early next week with daily rounds of numerous to widespread showers and strong thunderstorms expected to continue. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 An elongated area of High Pressure is currently located over north- central NM. It`s helping to suppress some storm activity, but a few storms have been able to break through the stable layer over the high terrain and northeast highlands. This High can also be thanked for the hazy conditions around the state this afternoon. Both ozone and PM2.5 concentrations are elevated and should remain so through the evening. This combined with the heat certainly makes it a bad day to be outside. The isolated to scattered storm activity should end by the evening, giving way to a mild summer night across the forecast area. The ridge will gradually shift southward over central NM tonight into tomorrow, keeping temperatures hot. Once again highs will approach 100F in Albuquerque, with mid to upper 90s in Santa Fe, Farmington, and Clayton. The southward shift in the High will also allow a very subtle shortwave to graze the northeastern portion of the area tomorrow afternoon, sparking more widespread storm coverage. Storms will cluster together as they move off the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns. The shear will be marginal for the development of large hail so damaging outflow wind gusts will be the main hazard as storms try to organize into a MCS. The addition of a backdoor cold front will help add some additional low-level convergence and will be accelerated south and westward by outflow boundaries from convection in the eastern plains. Some hi-res models suggest that this will aid in the development of additional showers and storms after it surges through the gaps in the central mtn chain. Given the less than impressive pressure gradient associated with the backdoor front, very strong east winds appear unlikely, but briefly gusty winds cannot be ruled in east Albuquerque with the passage of the outflow boundary. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Monsoon high center is forecast to get shunted westward over northeast AZ Tuesday night by the unseasonably deep closed low in Ontario Canada. This changes the wind direction in the mid levels of the atmosphere over northeast NM and that makes all the difference in low level moisture advection during this time of year. The monsoon high continues to shift slowly westward Wednesday, resulting in not only a steering flow change to northerly, but increased lift in mid levels in the form of atmospheric stretching. Stronger north and northwest winds in eastern NM compared to light winds near the monsoon high center act to deform or stretch the atmosphere over NM. Numerous to widespread mainly strong thunderstorms result each afternoon, continuing well into the late evening and potentially into the early morning hours, particularly Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This scenario repeats itself each day through the weekend and into early next week. Given the increased mid level stretching/lift and increased precipitable water (PWAT) compared to a similar monsoon set up in 2016, heavy to torrential rainfall is likely each afternoon over much of the forecast area. Plan for normally dry rivers, acequias, streams, creeks, arroyos and ditches to become rain filled muddy torrents. .CLIMATE... An updated monsoon outlook has been posted to weather.gov/media/abq/Briefings/2024MonsoonOutlook covering the remainder of the monsoon --> July, August and September. A similar pattern to the latter half of this week is forecast to continue through much of August and into early September. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and storms will favor the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, with gusty outflow winds up to 40KT being the main hazard. Storm motion will be slow and erratic, except across the northeast where will it will be easterly thanks to a weak disturbance rounding the north side of the High that is centered over north-central New Mexico. Some hi-res models are trying to pick-up on an area of showers in central and east-central New Mexico this evening between 00Z and 06Z, including along the Rio Grande Valley. However, confidence was not high enough with this package to include more than a mention of vicinity showers in the TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected in the forecast area through the next 7 days. Isolated to scattered convective activity will trend greater the next few days as moisture surges into the region and the ridge currently overhead shifts westward. Before the deeper moisture arrives Tuesday night, temperatures will remain around 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. A backdoor front will enter from the northeast Tuesday afternoon, surging through the gaps of the central mtn chain by the evening. There will be a high to extreme risk of burn scar flash flooding Wednesday through the end of the week and there are indications that the anomalously moist airmass will stick around over the weekend into early next week as the Monsoon Ridge remains parked over The Great Basin. Furthermore, strong to severe storms will favor the northeastern and east-central plains the next couple days, with the severe threat potentially extending westward mid to late week. The high moisture content and therefore cloud cover along with several backdoor cold front surges will keep temperatures a few to several degrees below seasonal averages mid week through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 97 65 96 / 10 5 10 20 Dulce........................... 52 91 50 91 / 20 30 20 70 Cuba............................ 60 92 58 88 / 20 30 40 70 Gallup.......................... 56 94 57 92 / 20 30 30 50 El Morro........................ 57 87 58 86 / 30 50 60 80 Grants.......................... 60 92 60 90 / 20 40 40 70 Quemado......................... 59 90 58 89 / 30 50 60 90 Magdalena....................... 64 92 64 89 / 10 20 30 70 Datil........................... 58 89 58 87 / 10 40 40 80 Reserve......................... 57 94 56 95 / 20 60 50 90 Glenwood........................ 67 96 67 98 / 40 70 50 80 Chama........................... 52 84 50 82 / 30 50 30 90 Los Alamos...................... 64 87 62 83 / 20 50 50 90 Pecos........................... 59 90 57 82 / 20 50 50 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 86 45 80 / 40 80 60 70 Red River....................... 48 76 46 70 / 40 80 60 90 Angel Fire...................... 44 80 43 72 / 30 60 50 80 Taos............................ 53 91 52 85 / 30 50 40 60 Mora............................ 54 85 52 77 / 30 60 40 80 Espanola........................ 62 96 60 92 / 20 30 40 70 Santa Fe........................ 63 90 61 85 / 20 40 50 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 94 61 88 / 20 30 50 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 96 68 91 / 10 20 50 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 98 68 92 / 10 10 40 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 100 68 95 / 10 10 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 99 68 94 / 10 10 40 50 Belen........................... 66 100 67 96 / 10 10 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 66 99 67 95 / 10 20 40 60 Bosque Farms.................... 65 99 65 95 / 10 10 30 40 Corrales........................ 66 99 67 95 / 10 10 40 60 Los Lunas....................... 65 100 66 96 / 10 10 30 40 Placitas........................ 66 95 66 90 / 10 20 40 60 Rio Rancho...................... 68 98 68 93 / 10 10 40 50 Socorro......................... 69 102 70 98 / 5 10 30 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 91 61 84 / 10 30 40 70 Tijeras......................... 65 93 62 87 / 10 30 40 70 Edgewood........................ 60 92 59 86 / 10 30 30 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 93 58 87 / 10 30 40 60 Clines Corners.................. 59 89 57 82 / 10 40 40 70 Mountainair..................... 62 92 59 88 / 10 20 30 60 Gran Quivira.................... 61 92 59 89 / 10 30 30 70 Carrizozo....................... 67 96 67 92 / 5 10 20 60 Ruidoso......................... 60 88 59 83 / 0 20 20 70 Capulin......................... 58 86 56 75 / 30 70 60 80 Raton........................... 57 91 56 80 / 30 60 40 80 Springer........................ 58 93 58 82 / 20 60 40 80 Las Vegas....................... 58 86 56 78 / 20 50 40 90 Clayton......................... 65 95 62 81 / 30 40 50 60 Roy............................. 63 92 60 81 / 20 40 50 70 Conchas......................... 67 99 66 90 / 10 10 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 66 96 65 88 / 10 20 40 50 Tucumcari....................... 68 100 65 89 / 5 5 30 30 Clovis.......................... 69 99 68 91 / 0 5 20 40 Portales........................ 69 99 68 93 / 0 5 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 68 99 68 93 / 0 5 20 30 Roswell......................... 71 103 73 100 / 0 0 5 20 Picacho......................... 65 96 65 93 / 0 10 10 40 Elk............................. 61 92 61 90 / 0 10 10 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...33