Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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672 FXUS65 KABQ 101946 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 146 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 132 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue for most of the state on Thursday and Friday. Flash flooding will remain a concern, particularly for regions that receive multiple thunderstorms and over burn scars. The highest chances for precipitation will shift to western New Mexico during the weekend. However, starting on Monday, a plume of moisture will move into New Mexico, increasing precipitation chances for the rest of the state. The highest chances for storms look to be during the middle of the week, starting on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm throughout the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 132 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 A 598dm H5 high center near Las Vegas, NV today will shift east into the Four Corners region thru Friday. Abundant moisture is in place today over southeast NM (PWATs near 1") while drier air (PWATs near 0.5") is trapped beneath the upper high over northwest NM. Steering flow from north to south today will allow cells to train along the central high terrain and nearby highlands and plains of eastern NM. Flash flooding is highly possible thru this evening in areas with recent heavy rain, urban areas, burn scars, and locations with training storms. Storms will then decrease in coverage thru midnight followed by mid level debris clouds until sunrise. Convective initiation is likely to begin again around noon Thursday with the focus for locally heavy rainfall between the central mt chain and the Cont Divide. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed for the Ruidoso area again as CAMs show more storms developing over the area then shifting south/southwest. Coverage does appear more discrete in nature compared to the multiple rounds possible today. Steering flow will be more favorable for the ABQ metro area on Thursday. Overall, coverage is more limited Thursday compared to today, PWATs decrease slightly over the eastern half of NM, and subsidence/warming aloft will be a factor near the upper high. The primary focus Friday will shift to the northern and western high terrain with steering flow more toward the southwest and even west. PWATs continue to trend a little lower as well which should limit the coverage of the heavier rainfall rates outside of slow- moving storms. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 132 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Over the weekend, high pressure that will be located over Nevada/Utah on Friday will start to move east, eventually moving over Colorado by the end of the weekend. During the weekend, rain chances will be mostly focused on western portions of the state during the afternoon hours, though a low chance of showers over the Central Mountain Chain exists. A trough from the west will cause the high to shift further into the Central Plains by early next week. A plume of moisture (with PWAT values well in excess of one inch) will start to move into New Mexico from the southeast, causing an increase in rain chances over the Central Mountain Chain. As a result, burn scar flash flooding will be a concern during the afternoon hours during the weekdays next week. Temperatures will remain seasonable throughout the forecast period, with a slight cooldown near the end of the period on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Convective initiation has begun along the central mt chain at noon with the greatest coverage of SHRA/TS peaking from 3pm to 9pm. This activity will move south near 10kt and develop into nearby highlands and valleys on gusty outflow boundaries. Direct hits from some of the strongest cells will be capable of brief IFR vsbys in heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and frequent lightning. SHRA/TS will slowly taper off from north to south thru midnight followed by remnant mid level debris clouds thru sunrise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Critical fire weather is not expected for at least the next 7 days. A potent upper level high centered near the Four Corners today will drift east through the weekend. Storms with locally heavy rainfall will move southward today then toward the southwest Thursday and even westward by Friday. The heavy rain focus will also shift from the central mt chain into western NM during this period. Another surge of monsoon moisture is possible next week as the upper level high moves even farther east. This will allow storms to move from south to north with more locally heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 96 63 98 / 5 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 90 48 92 / 30 30 10 20 Cuba............................ 54 88 55 90 / 20 40 20 20 Gallup.......................... 53 93 53 94 / 5 20 10 20 El Morro........................ 56 86 56 87 / 10 40 30 40 Grants.......................... 55 89 56 90 / 10 40 20 30 Quemado......................... 57 89 56 89 / 20 60 50 60 Magdalena....................... 61 87 62 88 / 30 60 30 30 Datil........................... 57 85 57 85 / 20 70 30 40 Reserve......................... 54 92 53 92 / 20 70 50 70 Glenwood........................ 66 95 66 95 / 30 80 50 70 Chama........................... 47 82 48 85 / 40 50 20 40 Los Alamos...................... 59 83 61 86 / 20 60 20 50 Pecos........................... 55 82 56 86 / 30 70 20 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 82 45 85 / 50 60 20 50 Red River....................... 44 72 46 76 / 40 60 10 50 Angel Fire...................... 40 76 41 79 / 30 60 10 40 Taos............................ 49 86 50 88 / 30 50 10 30 Mora............................ 49 79 50 83 / 20 70 10 40 Espanola........................ 57 90 59 93 / 20 40 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 59 84 60 86 / 30 60 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 89 59 91 / 20 50 20 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 91 65 92 / 30 50 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 93 65 94 / 20 30 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 94 64 96 / 10 20 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 93 65 95 / 20 20 20 10 Belen........................... 61 95 62 96 / 20 30 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 63 94 64 95 / 20 30 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 60 94 61 95 / 10 20 20 5 Corrales........................ 63 94 63 96 / 20 30 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 61 95 62 96 / 10 20 20 5 Placitas........................ 62 91 63 92 / 20 40 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 64 93 65 95 / 20 30 20 10 Socorro......................... 65 96 65 97 / 20 40 30 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 86 60 87 / 20 50 20 20 Tijeras......................... 59 91 61 92 / 20 50 20 20 Edgewood........................ 55 89 56 90 / 20 50 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 88 53 89 / 20 50 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 53 81 55 84 / 20 50 20 20 Mountainair..................... 55 87 57 87 / 20 50 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 55 86 56 87 / 30 70 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 61 88 63 90 / 40 60 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 55 79 56 82 / 40 80 20 30 Capulin......................... 54 82 57 85 / 10 20 0 10 Raton........................... 54 87 55 90 / 20 20 0 10 Springer........................ 54 87 55 91 / 20 30 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 52 79 54 83 / 20 60 10 30 Clayton......................... 61 90 63 92 / 5 10 0 0 Roy............................. 57 85 60 88 / 20 20 5 5 Conchas......................... 62 92 64 95 / 30 10 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 59 88 62 91 / 30 20 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 61 92 64 94 / 20 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 64 92 66 93 / 30 10 10 0 Portales........................ 64 93 66 94 / 20 10 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 63 93 65 94 / 30 20 10 0 Roswell......................... 67 97 69 98 / 20 20 5 0 Picacho......................... 61 89 62 90 / 30 50 10 10 Elk............................. 57 86 58 87 / 30 70 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-221>224- 226-229-239-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...42