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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
013 FXUS65 KVEF 080227 AAA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 726 pm PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A historic heatwave persists across the region, with daily and all-time records threatened through Friday. By next weekend, a more traditional monsoonal pattern tries to take hold, increasing rain chances and cooling temperatures slightly. && .UPDATE...Along with the extreme temperatures, a few thunderstorms did develop along the southern Sierra Nevada late this afternoon between Aspendell and Mt. Whitney. They should dissipate by 8 or 9 pm this evening. The big news today was the shattering of records. Las Vegas managed to hit 120 degrees, shattering the all-time record high by 3 degrees. Bishop CA and Barstow-Daggett managed to tie their respective all-time records of 111 degree and 118 degrees. These records are all preliminary as the data needs to be certified by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). && .PREV DISCUSSION...1252 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .DISCUSSION...through next weekend. The nearly 600dm 500mb high continues to linger over the CA-NV area, slowly drifting east over the next 7 days. Underneath, scorching temperatures persist, producing widespread Major and Extreme HeatRisk. Yesterday, all but 1 of our climate sites (Needles) set daily record highs, with more records likely to be set in the coming days. We`re running out of ways to describe the historic heatwave that is underway across the region. Perhaps the best way to provide perspective is by looking at the Las Vegas forecast and climate history. Since 1937, Las Vegas has hit 117 degrees (the all-time record high) 5 times. Of the next 6 days (including today), 5 of them have a 50-60% chance of reaching or exceeding that mark based on the latest NBM. Even if the 25th percentile of the NBM verified over the next 6 days, it would be the hottest 7-day stretch ever recorded in Las Vegas based on average high temperature. However, the key takeaway from the forecast should not be the records, but the danger posed by the excessive heat. Check up on loved ones - especially those who are particularly vulnerable to the heat. Populations sensitive to heat may include, but are not limited to: those experiencing homelessness, elderly people, pregnant people, children, and pets. Never leave a child or a pet in a car without air conditioning. With this level of heat, simply rolling down the windows will not be sufficient. By next weekend, ensemble guidance shows the aforementioned 500mb high drifting towards the Four Corners area, a more-typical location for the monsoon season. SSE winds within the anti-cyclonic flow around the high are expected to advect at least some moisture back into our area. The better quality moisture will likely be confined to locations along and south of I-15, where 1" PWAT probabilities range from 30-60%. As moisture increases, so too do PoPs. Latest NBM paints eastern Mohave County with 20-50% rain chances on Saturday and Sunday, with 20-30% chances on the Spring Mountains. Given the setup, tempted to believe these numbers are somewhat inflated by climatology influences in the NBM, but regardless, the trend of increasing PoPs stands for next weekend. The magnitude and northward extent of moisture return will largely dictate whether or not we see a subtle reprieve from the historic heat. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...A push of northwesterly winds should arrive mid-afternoon with speeds of 7 to 9 knots and occasional gusts over 10 knots possible. Winds shift to the west in the evening, lightening further and switching back to the northwest overnight. Variable winds can be expected early tomorrow morning followed by northeasterly winds. Temperatures will peak at around 117 degrees between 22Z and 02Z and will fall to less than 100 degrees around 08Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Gusty winds develop this afternoon and evening at KVGT, KBIH, and KDAG, all decreasing overnight. Remaining TAF sites should have winds of less than 10 knots. Clear skies except for some FEW- SCT mid to high clouds. Very hot temperatures today and tomorrow with most areas seeing highs between 110 and 120 degrees. Tomorrow`s highs in the Colorado River Valley may exceed 120 degrees. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). MAX SUN, JUL 7 MON, JUL 8 TUE, JUL 9 WED, JUL 10 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 116(2017)* 114(2021)* 116(2021)* 117(2021)* Bishop 107(2021)* 109(2021)* 108(2021)* 111(2021)* Needles 122(2017)* 120(2017)* 120(2021)* 122(2021)* Daggett 116(1989)* 114(2021)* 113(2021)* 118(2021)* Kingman 112(2017)* 108(2017)* 111(2021)* 111(2021)* Desert Rock 112(2017)* 108(2017)* 111(2021)* 111(2021)* Death Valley 129(2007)* 128(1913)* 130(2021)* 134(1913) The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). WARM MIN SUN, JUL 7 MON, JUL 8 TUE, JUL 9 WED, JUL 10 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 93(2018) 92(2017)* 93(2021)* 94(2021) Bishop 72(2014)* 70(1991) 72(1975) 71(1985) Needles 95(1942) 95(2018) 95(2021) 98(2021) Daggett 80(2018)* 84(2021)* 85(2017)* 88(2021) Kingman 80(1917)* 84(2014) 82(2017) 79(1913)* Desert Rock 82(1981) 81(2021)* 86(1985) 82(2021)* Death Valley 101(2021) 105(1921) 104(2021) 100(1927)* && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Pierce DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter