155
FXUS65 KVEF 100330
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
830 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Historic heat continues through the work week, keeping
HeatRisk in the Major to Extreme categories for most locations.
Monsoonal moisture returns this weekend, bring some relief from the
heat and increasing rain chances.
&&

.UPDATE...Today was another record-setting day in Las Vegas with
a high of 119 degrees breaking the old record of 116 for this date
in 2021. Daily records were also set at other long-term climate
sites in our forecast area...Bishop, Barstow-Daggett, Needles,
Kingman and Desert Rock. The strong ridge of high pressure, or heat
dome, will remain centered over Nevada through Thursday with similar
temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday. Some relief is on the
horizon as the ridge slowly migrates toward the Four Corners region
this weekend and sets up a typical monsoonal pattern with southeast
flow developing across Arizona and Nevada and opening the door for
moisture to be pulled our way from Mexico. These trends are
reflected in the going forecat and no immediate changes are needed.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
1252 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

The historic and likely most prolific heatwave our area has ever
seen (in terms of records set) continues through the work week. As
of yesterday, our 7 climate sites have set/tied 19 record high
temperatures since July 1st, including 3 all-time record highs.
Records will continue to be set, or at least challenged, through
Friday. Needless to say, this level of heat is dangerous to anyone
without adequate cooling/hydration.

However, there is some hope on the horizon! As we head into the
weekend, the 500mb high that`s currently overhead is forecast to
drift towards the Four Corners area. Anticyclonic flow around the
high will usher in some monsoonal moisture, bringing temperatures
down and rain chances up. Best odds of seeing showers/storms is on
the higher terrain along and south of the I-15 corridor, where the
latest NBM paints 20-50% PoPs. With ensemble-mean PWATs ranging
from 1.00"-1.50" in this area, the typical monsoon hazards (flash
flooding, gusty outflow winds, lightning) will all be in play.
Farther northwest where moisture is lower, outflow winds and dry
lightning become the primary concerns with any convection.
Regardless of whether your location actually receives any
precipitation, the increased moisture and clouds will bring some
relief from the brutal heat. While still above normal, forecast
highs this weekend are 5-10 degrees off their current values.

Looking ahead to next week, the main thing to watch will be the
position of the 500mb high. If it can hold its own over the Four
Corners, then the monsoonal activity may persist. If it shifts east
or weakens, southwesterly flow may develop over our area and scour
most of the moisture out.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light northeast winds of 7-10 knots can
be expected this morning, shifting to the east/southeast briefly.
Winds then look to shift to the south and southwest after 22z,
increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts approaching 20 knots between
00z and 04z. Southwest winds will then remain elevated through
around 10-12z. Temperatures above 100 degrees will persist through
around 08z and peak around 117 degrees between 22-01z. A few mid
level clouds can be expected this afternoon over the higher
terrain.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Most TAF sites will see winds generally less than 10-15
knots through much of the day. At KBIH, winds will become southerly
with a few gusts to 18 knots between 20z and 00z. Winds will turn
southwest and eventually northwest after 00z. KDAG will also see
increasing west winds up to 25 knots after 23z. A few mid level
clouds are likely this afternoon over the higher terrain. Very hot
conditions persist, with afternoon temps largely in the 110-120
range.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX       TUE, JUL 9  WED, JUL 10  THU, JUL 11   FRI, JUL 12
             Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)    RECORD (Yr)

Las Vegas     116(2021)*  117(2021)*    116(1959)*   114(2003)*
Bishop        108(2021)*  111(2021)*    109(2021)*   108(2020)*
Needles       120(2021)*  122(2021)*    120(2020)*   124(1925)
Daggett       113(2021)*  118(2021)*    117(2021)*   115(2021)*
Kingman       111(2021)*  111(2021)*    110(1961)*   111(2020)
Desert Rock   111(2021)*  111(2021)*    114(2021)*   112(2021)*
Death Valley  130(2021)*  134(1913)     129(1913)*   130(1913)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the
forecast).

WARM MIN      TUE, JUL 9  WED, JUL 10  THU, JUL 11  FRIDAY, JUL 12
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   RECORD (Yr)

Las Vegas     93(2021)    94(2021)*    91(2012)*     94(2020)*
Bishop        72(1975)    71(1985)     70(2013)      69(1990)*
Needles       95(2021)    98(2021)     96(2021)      96(2021)
Daggett       85(2017)    88(2021)     90(2021)      87(2012)*
Kingman       82(2017)    79(1913)*    81(2021)*     80(2021)*
Desert Rock   86(1985)    82(2021)*    87(2021)      83(2023)*
Death Valley  104(2021)   100(1927)*   105(1920)     107(2012)


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adair
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Austin

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