Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
849 FXUS65 KVEF 182115 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 215 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue with temperatures climbing into the weekend. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue as well, especially across the higher terrain, mainly for Mohave County and the southern Great Basin, although there continues a slight chance of thunderstorm activity in the Las Vegas Valley. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Showers and Thunderstorms will diminish after sunset this evening. High pressure drifting westward has and will continue to keep monsoon moisture underneath it. This moisture will keep chances of thunderstorms each afternoon through the weekend for Mohave County and the southern Great Basin. The Las Vegas Valley and areas south and east will see a lesser chance of storms and this clearing will allow for hotter temperatures. An Excessive Heat Warning is in place for the Colorado River zones and Southern Mohave/San Bernardino Counties on Friday, expanding to Las Vegas and the lower elevations of San Bernardino County and Death Valley for Saturday and Sunday. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Monsoon moisture increases Monday across the area, bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms over a larger area, spreading westward to include much of the CWA. PWAT values of 1.5" are possible by Tuesday for Clark County which will make flash flooding a greater concern with storms that do form. Storms are possible each afternoon through the forecast period. On top of the monsoon activity, heat will continue through next week with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal for this, climatologically the hottest time of the year. A large trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest later in the week, and may eventually bring some relief from the heat. However, there is uncertainty as to its evolution at this time. As such there is low confidence in its timing and impacts. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid... Showers and thunderstorms will begin to form in the higher terrain to the west and south of the Las Vegas Valley around 19Z. As thunderstorm activity spreads into the valley, expect strong gusty winds from their direction. The direction will likely favor the southwest due to terrain-driven activity, but could ultimately come from any direction that storms form this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances diminish after sunset, with winds returning to diurnal patterns through the evening and overnight hours. A return of thunderstorms Friday afternoon will begin over the western and southern mountains, with less than 20 percent chance of formation over the terminal. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California... Thunderstorms expected at and around all TAF sites this afternoon, with best chances between 19Z and 03Z. Expect strong, gusty winds from the direction of storms, particularly near Las Vegas Valley TAF sites and KDAG where gusts over 35 kts will be possible. Winds return to diurnal trends overnight. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon, with impacts expected at all TAF sites including heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. && && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Berc AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter