898
FXUS65 KVEF 020546
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1044 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Final day of widespread Moderate Heat Risk, as temperatures drop
  below-normal through the remainder of the work week.

* Light shower and thunderstorm chances expected through Thursday
  across central Nye, Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave counties.

* Thunderstorms today will be unlikely to produce wetting rain,
  which will result in increased wildfire concerns.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

Today is forecast to be the final day of widespread Moderate
HeatRisk and above-normal temperatures. Of note, cloud cover over
the Las Vegas Valley this afternoon has dampened the potential for
108 degrees (max temp forecast), with an observed high so far today
around 100 degrees. An area of low pressure will push inland on
Wednesday, bringing lower heights and increased moisture - both of
which will work to reduce temperatures across the region through the
work week. Temperatures will remain at-or-slightly below-normal
until the weekend, when a growing area of high pressure will return
temperatures to above-normal.

An area of high pressure over the Four Corners is helping to usher
mid-level moisture from an incoming Pacific low up the Colorado
River Valley today and Wednesday. PWATs will increase to around
1.00" in eastern San Bernardino, southern Clark, and Mohave
counties. As this occurs, expect scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Due to the very dry low levels, DCAPE is between 1500
and 1800 J/kg across our forecast area. So far today, virga showers
over the Las Vegas Valley produced several gusts over 58 mph,
warranting a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. This will continue as
light showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to push northward
into Lincoln and south-central Nye counties through the evening and
overnight period. Convection returns Wednesday afternoon as the
center of the Pacific low moves inland. Expect showers to produce
more rainfall Wednesday than today, as moisture saturates the
column. Conditions will dry out Thursday onward as a ridge of high
pressure slowly grows over the region.

Thunderstorm activity today across portions of southern Nye,
Lincoln, and Mohave counties will struggle to produce wetting rains
(0.10 inches). As such, dry lightning that occurs poses a wildfire
threat. Meanwhile, gusty south winds across Esmeralda County coupled
with single-digit relative humidities will increase wildfire
concerns in the southwestern Great Basin. A Red Flag Warning is out
for these areas as a result until 8pm tonight.
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning in effect for Nevada Fire Weather
Zones 460, 461, and 462 and for Arizona Fire Weather Zone 101
through 8 PM tonight. Main concerns for 461, 462, and 101 will be
dry lightning this afternoon. Main concerns for 101 will be gusty
south winds coupled with single-digit relative humidities. Very dry
conditions will continue across Esmeralda, Inyo, and San Bernardino
counties through the week. Moisture will peak in central Nye,
Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave counties Wednesday before dwindling
through the work week. Widespread single-digit RH expected by Friday
afternoon... coupled with breezy conditions and increased firework
activity will elevate wildfire concerns.
&&

 .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds are expected through daybreak before turning east
to southeast by mid-morning.  An isolated shower will be possible
throughout the night, although a better chance is forecast after
15Z.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely during the
afternoon and early evening, and gusts to 40 knots are possible once
again in and near this activity. Conditions will improve tomorrow
evening as the activity shifts off to the east.  Skies will be SCT
to BKN through the period with bases generally around 15kft AGL
except near convection where CIGs of 10kft to 12kft AGL are
possible.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area terminals will be similar to those described above for
Harry Reid.  Elsewhere, light northerly winds in the Owens Valley
are expected to turn southerly by tomorrow afternoon.  A few
isolated showers are possible near KBIH, but the majority of the
convection should remain over the higher terrain.  A few isolated
showers and storms are also possible in the Colorado River valley
during the afternoon, especially from KIFP north.  KDAG will see
more typical conditions with gusty westerly winds developing by
early evening.  Skies will be SCT to BKN through the period with
bases generally around 15kft AGL except near convection where CIGs
of 10kft to 12kft AGL are possible.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz


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