926
FXUS65 KVEF 061529
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
829 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to climb going into the
weekend and start of next week as numerous climate sites face high
probabilities of breaking daily as well as all-time temperature
records. Oppressive heat is expected to continue through at least
midweek.
&&

.UPDATE...Excessive heat continues today, with warnings expanding
into Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties, and advisories going into
effect for the Spring, Sheep, and White Mountains. This means our
entire CWA (minus the Sierra) will be under some form of heat
headline through Wednesday. Daily records will be threatened at many
locations during this time, with all-time records in jeopardy at Las
Vegas and Barstow. The brutal heat looks likely to continue through
the work week, but uncertainty surrounding monsoonal moisture grows
by next weekend. Should it return, we could see slight temperature
relief. If it remains confined to southern Arizona, excessive heat
will persist.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

Yesterday, 5 daily heat records were broken or tied across the
region. Death Valley, Needles, and Kingman set high temperature
records and Barstow-Daggett and Desert Rock set warm low temperature
records. Records will continue to fall through the weekend and start
of next week as a near-600 decameter 500 mb high pressure system
will continue to move inland, ultimately placing the center of the
high directly over southern Nevada late-weekend into early next
week. Daily records can be found in the CLIMATE section below. This
heat is dangerous and prolonged. Major (Level 3) and Extreme (Level
4) HeatRisk will continue to spread across the region over the next
few days - including spreading northward to include much of the
southern Great Basin and higher elevations of the Mojave Desert. As
such, Heat Advisories for the White Mountains of Inyo County and the
Spring and Sheep Mountains of Clark County go into effect today as
well as an Excessive Heat Warning for Lincoln County and northern
Mohave County. All heat-related headlines will continue through
Wednesday. After Wednesday, the forecast remains uncertain. The
position of the high will determine the amount (if any) of monsoonal
moisture that moves into the region.

If the aforementioned area of high pressure moves eastward enough,
monsoonal moisture will wrap northward into the Desert Southwest
from northern Mexico. How much moisture will determine if excessive
temperatures continue into next weekend or not. We will continue to
assess the upcoming synoptic pattern through the week.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Variable winds favoring a
northeast direction will occur through 21z with speeds around 7
knots or less. These northeast winds will become more variable after
21z with speeds 7 knots or less through the remainder of the
afternoon. Southwest winds will redevelop this evening after 04z and
continue through much of the overnight period. Dangerous heat
continues again today with temperatures over 100 degrees expected
16Z through 06Z. The forecasted high temperature today is 114
degrees which is forecast to occur between 22z-02z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds will follow typical diurnal patterns today with
most areas seeing wind speeds less than 10 knots. Extreme
temperatures will occur again this afternoon with most TAF sites
seeing highs between 112-119 degrees, the exception will be KBIH
where highs will be between 108-110 degrees.
&&


.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           SAT, JUL 6  SUN, JUL 7  MON, JUL 8  TUE, JUL 9
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     115(2007)*  116(2017)*  114(2021)*  116(2021)*
Bishop        105(2021)*  107(2021)*  109(2021)*  108(2021)*
Needles       120(1922)*  122(2017)   120(2017)*  120(2021)*
Daggett       115(2007)*  116(1989)*  114(2021)*  113(2021)*
Kingman       108(2017)*  112(2017)   108(2017)*  111(2021)*
Desert Rock   111(2007)*  111(2017)*  108(2017)*  111(2021)*
Death Valley  127(2007)*  129(2007)*  128(1913)*  130(2021)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the
forecast).

WARM MIN      SAT, JUL 6  SUN, JUL 7  MON, JUL 8  TUE, JUL 9
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     90(1957)*   93(2018)    92(2017)*   93(2021)
Bishop        67(1985)    72(2014)    70(1991)*   72(1975)
Needles       97(1903)    95(1942)    95(2018)    95(2021)
Daggett       83(2007)*   80(2018)*   84(2021)*   85(2017)*
Kingman       79(1981)    80(1917)    84(2014)    82(2017)*
Desert Rock   83(1992)    82(1981)    81(2021)    86(1985)
Death Valley  99(2013)*   101(2021)   105(1921)   104(2021)
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Woods
DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Gorelow

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