840
FXUS63 KUNR 200314
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
914 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms still possible, mainly across south
  central South Dakota late this afternoon and evening.

- Near average temperatures this weekend into early next week with
  potential for isolated thunderstorms.

- Trending hot and dry for the middle and latter parts of next
  week with elevated fire weather conditions likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Upper level analysis early this afternoon has the Northern Plains
under broad cyclonic flow with weak shortwave trof dropping into
northwestern SD later this afternoon. Decaying area of
thunderstorms is located across south central SD, drifting south.
More isolated convection is present in northeastern WY. At the
surface, weak trof of low pressure resides across western SD,
oriented north to south. Breezy northerly winds behind it, and
east to southeast winds ahead. Temperatures across the forecast
area at 2pm range from the lower 70s to mid 80s.

Weak cyclonic flow will continue across the Northern Plains
through tomorrow night as deep upper low spins across eastern
Canada. Storm chances dwindle overnight, but ramp back up again
for Saturday afternoon as weak energy slides through the area.
Upper ridge over the western CONUS strengthens, keeping northerly
flow across the area into Monday. With weak energy dropping south
in this flow, expected isolated chances for storms to continue
into Monday afternoon. Temperatures through this period will
remain near seasonal averages.

Upper ridge over the western CONUS will finally make inroads into
the Northern Plains by the middle of next week. This will bring
mainly hot and dry conditions to the area. High temperatures will
be in the 90s to around 100 degrees, with winds breezy at times.
This will likely lead to elevated fire weather conditions for the
latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 912 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. The
exceptions will be near isolated thunderstorms overnight with
brief MVFR visibility, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon/evening with brief MVFR conditions. There is
also a low probability of early morning fog in central SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Johnson