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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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281 FXUS63 KUNR 141716 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1116 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Hot weather continues today, along with a few late day and nighttime thunderstorms, some strong -Elevated fire weather conditions continue today, with some improvement by Monday -Cooler early to mid next week with isolated to scattered storms at times && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 208 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Water vapor shows broad upper ridge over the western and central CONUS with upper high centered near the Four Corners. Intense MCS across SD beginning to exit our eastern zones, although some convective bands extend westward to near and north of the Black Hills. At the surface, high is building through the Dakotas in wake of the MCS. For today, all convection should shift east of our area by morning. Return flow will ensue as surface high shifts into the Upper Midwest and surface trof moves across eastern MT in response to short wave diving southeast through southern ALTA/SASK. Thermal ridge will peak overhead, resulting in widespread 90s and lower 100s, with some areas south/east of the Black Hills up to near 105. Based on expected afternoon dewpoints, the current Heat Advisory south/east of the Black Hills into south-central SD looks good. As far as thunderstorms, it will likely take a while the atmosphere to recover in wake of the MCS, but a few storms are possible by late in the afternoon. Best severe threat should be to our east, but a few stronger storms possible. Winds will begin shifting to the west/northwest late and overnight as surface trof/cold front moves in. Short wave will dive out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest Monday, with cold advection through the day resulting in highs about 10-15 degrees cooler than today. Best chance for storms will be from around the Black Hills into northeast WY and southwest SD, with a few stronger storms possible. Unsettled northwest flow expected through mid week with mean trof over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with temps near average. Upper ridge to our west amplifies through the Rockies late in the week and should allow temps to rebound, although unsettled conditions likely to continue with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1116 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may lead to localized reduced cigs/vsbys late this afternoon through the overnight. A front crossing the area will bring a shift to northwesterly winds through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 208 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Hot temperatures will continue today along with elevated fire weather conditions. Expect RH`s dipping to 10 to 15 percent from northeast WY into far western SD, with slightly higher RH`s further east. However, relatively light winds are expected. Breezy northerly winds are expected Monday behind a cold front, but RH`s will be a bit higher. Nearly daily chances for storms will continue through at least the middle of the week, with temperatures early to mid week around average. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ030>032-041>044-046-047-049-075>077. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson AVIATION...Sherburn FIRE WEATHER...Johnson