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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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127 FXUS63 KUNR 170434 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1034 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average temperatures continue, with nearly daily chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. - Best chance of more widespread precipitation on Friday && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 148 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Current upper analysis shows a ridge building over the western CONUS with a southeastward moving upper trough/low over the Great Lakes region, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area this afternoon. A surface cool front extends from northeast to southwest across south central SD with around 1500J/kg to the south of the boundary. A line of convection has developed along the front in Nebraska and just to the south of the Neb/SD border. There is still a chance of thunderstorms developing over parts of south central SD this afternoon, however the front may push to the southeast of the forecast area before convection is able to develop there. The best coverage/severe threat will be to the south of south central SD in Nebraska. Isolated thunderstorms had earlier developed over and near the southern Black Hills. May see some redevelopment there during the rest of the afternoon, however chances decrease quickly this evening. Northwest flow aloft continues through the remainder of the week as a persistent upper level ridge remains over the western CONUS. A surface high will slip across the eastern Dakotas on Wednesday/Thursday with mainly conditions for much of the area. However, a narrow axis of buoyancy will favor some isolated thunderstorm activity, especially across northeastern Wyoming/western South Dakota on Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for thunderstorms continue into the weekend as several impulses rotate over the ridge and drop through the plains. The best chances for more widespread rain will be on Friday. Highs will mainly be in the 80s through the forecast period with 70s in the Black Hills. Thursday and Friday will be the warmest days with some locations on the plains reaching into the 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued At 1032 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. An isolated shower/storm may be possible Wednesday afternoon, mainly over the Black Hills into southwestern SD. Transient MVFR conditions can be expected in/near any storms in addition to gusty, erratic winds. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10 AVIATION...Dye