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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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775 FXUS63 KUNR 171015 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 415 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average temperatures with a daily chance of thunderstorms through the weekend. Isolated severe storms possible. - Trending warmer and drier early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday) Issued at 157 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas with a few mid clouds across the area. Persistent upper level ridge remains across the Intermountain West with northwest flow across the plains. Surface high slowly slides southeast today into Thursday with an uptick in return flow across northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota. Residual low level moisture and steep mid level lapse rates maintain some buoyancy across the area. Most of the area will remain dry today and Thursday, with any thunderstorm activity limited to northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills/southwestern South Dakota. Higher DCAPE across northeastern Wyoming will favor strong wind gusts with any robust thunderstorms, while deeper moisture and shear will result in a hail/wind threat to the Black Hills region. Stronger shortwave rides the ridge Thursday night the drops through the western Dakotas Friday. This will bring scattered thunderstorms to much of the area Friday afternoon/evening with a wind/hail threat. Ridge becomes a bit more amplified over the weekend with northerly flow aloft over the Plains. Embedded impulses will keep chance of thunderstorms in forecast each day. Early next week, eastern Pacific trough nudges ridge to the east, resulting in warmer/drier conditions across the forecast area. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued At 415 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. An isolated shower/storm may be possible this afternoon, mainly over the Black Hills into southwestern SD. Transient MVFR conditions can be expected in/near any storms in addition to gusty, erratic winds. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...Wong