496
FXUS63 KUNR 061951
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
151 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected through Sunday
  afternoon.

- Dry and warming for the rest of the forecast period.

- Increasing fire weather conditions move in next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024



Current Water Vapor shows upper circulation over north central SD
this afternoon. Broad upper trough covers the Northern Plains
into the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, associated surface
low sits over south central SD with a boundary stretching from NE
Wyoming through south central SD. Temperatures currently sit in
the 70s, with mostly light winds outside of northwestern SD, where
breezy northwest winds are occurring.

As wave crosses the forecast area, storms/showers are expected to
develop this afternoon and evening, with the better chances near
the boundary. Weak shear and low CAPE values should limit severe
potential. Could still see a marginally severe storm or two, with
the best chances being near south central SD nearer the NE border
where ML CAPE values climb into the 500-1000 j/Kg range.
Showers/Storms will continue into the overnight hours. Sunday,
another shortwave crosses the region, allowing for scattered
popcorn showers/storms late Sunday morning through the afternoon.
Once again with very little shear and SB CAPE generally less than
300 j/Kg, severe storms are not expected. Temperatures should
stay near guidance through Monday.

Conditions will gradually improve early in the work week as the
trough shifts eastward and upper ridge builds over the western
CONUS and eventually expands into the northern plains. Following
Sundays popcorn showers, expect dry conditions with a gradual
warming trend the rest of the week. By next weekend, temperatures
climb into the 90s and perhaps low 100s, as 850mb temps in the
mid 30s celsius advect into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1118 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA will develop this afternoon and
move eastward through the area tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...MLS