775
FXUS63 KUNR 171015
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
415 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures with a daily chance of thunderstorms
  through the weekend. Isolated severe storms possible.

- Trending warmer and drier early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas with a
few mid clouds across the area. Persistent upper level ridge
remains across the Intermountain West with northwest flow across
the plains. Surface high slowly slides southeast today into
Thursday with an uptick in return flow across northeastern Wyoming
and far western South Dakota. Residual low level moisture and
steep mid level lapse rates maintain some buoyancy across the
area. Most of the area will remain dry today and Thursday, with
any thunderstorm activity limited to northeastern Wyoming and the
Black Hills/southwestern South Dakota. Higher DCAPE across
northeastern Wyoming will favor strong wind gusts with any robust
thunderstorms, while deeper moisture and shear will result in a
hail/wind threat to the Black Hills region. Stronger shortwave
rides the ridge Thursday night the drops through the western
Dakotas Friday. This will bring scattered thunderstorms to much of
the area Friday afternoon/evening with a wind/hail threat.

Ridge becomes a bit more amplified over the weekend with northerly
flow aloft over the Plains. Embedded impulses will keep chance of
thunderstorms in forecast each day. Early next week, eastern
Pacific trough nudges ridge to the east, resulting in
warmer/drier conditions across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 415 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. An
isolated shower/storm may be possible this afternoon, mainly over
the Black Hills into southwestern SD. Transient MVFR conditions
can be expected in/near any storms in addition to gusty, erratic
winds.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...Wong