232
FXUS63 KUNR 120351
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
951 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Hot this weekend with isolated storms at times, some strong

-Elevated fire weather conditions through this weekend

-Cooler next week with isolated-scattered storms at times

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Massive western CONUS ridge will inch eastward and support hot
conds over the region this weekend. However, with the area being
on the edge of the ridge, several weak impulses will traverse the
flow and will lead to slight chances for showers and storms and as
sufficient moisture will be in place. However, most storms will
produce limited amounts of rain given high based nature of storms,
esp in the western half. Some stronger storms will be possible
through Sat given sufficient bulk layer shear in excess of 35
knots and enough CAPE in place at times, topping out at 1000-1500
J/KG today and again Sat. Sfc trough will push through early
Sunday, supporting drier weather as breezy northerly flow shunts
deeper moisture east of the FA. Biggest concern this weekend will
be the heat, with adv`s possible, esp toward central SD where
deeper moisture will be in place, supporting higher apparent
T`s. Thermal ridge will move over the region Sat-Sun, supporting
the warmest temps locally with this round of heat. Stronger
impulse will top the ridge Monday and support a cool front into
the region with temps falling back into the 80s for highs as well
as semi-unsettled flow through much of next week. However, storm
coverage will be isolated to scattered with most places not seeing
much in the way of appreciable moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 950 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated showers and storms will be possible tonight and again
Friday afternoon and evening. Locally gusty winds and brief MVFR
visibilities will be possible with any storms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 113 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through the
weekend as hotter and drier weather moves in. Minimum afternoon
relative humidities will dip in the teens and 20s with the lowest
readings over northeastern WY/far western SD (10-15% likely).
However, winds are not expected to be particular strong. Nighttime
relative humidity recovery will be poor over the higher terrain
of northeastern WY/Black Hills. Isolated thunderstorm activity
will be possible most days, and given the expected high
thunderstorm bases, precipitation with these storms may be
minimal.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Pojorlie
FIRE WEATHER...JC