639
FXUS63 KUNR 140848
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
248 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Hot weather continues today, along with a few late day and
 nighttime thunderstorms, some strong

-Elevated fire weather conditions continue today, with some
 improvement by Monday

-Cooler early to mid next week with isolated to scattered storms
 at times

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Water vapor shows broad upper ridge over the western and central
CONUS with upper high centered near the Four Corners. Intense MCS
across SD beginning to exit our eastern zones, although some
convective bands extend westward to near and north of the Black
Hills. At the surface, high is building through the Dakotas in
wake of the MCS.

For today, all convection should shift east of our area by
morning. Return flow will ensue as surface high shifts into the
Upper Midwest and surface trof moves across eastern MT in response
to short wave diving southeast through southern ALTA/SASK.
Thermal ridge will peak overhead, resulting in widespread 90s and
lower 100s, with some areas south/east of the Black Hills up to
near 105. Based on expected afternoon dewpoints, the current Heat
Advisory south/east of the Black Hills into south-central SD looks
good. As far as thunderstorms, it will likely take a while the
atmosphere to recover in wake of the MCS, but a few storms are
possible by late in the afternoon. Best severe threat should be to
our east, but a few stronger storms possible. Winds will begin
shifting to the west/northwest late and overnight as surface
trof/cold front moves in.

Short wave will dive out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest
Monday, with cold advection through the day resulting in highs
about 10-15 degrees cooler than today. Best chance for storms will
be from around the Black Hills into northeast WY and southwest SD,
with a few stronger storms possible.

Unsettled northwest flow expected through mid week with mean trof
over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with temps near average. Upper
ridge to our west amplifies through the Rockies late in the week
and should allow temps to rebound, although unsettled conditions
likely to continue with northwest flow across the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 1256 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Severe thunderstorms to the east of the Black Hills will exit
east of the area over the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts have
been noted with these storms, along with a period of MVFR/IFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally expected
through the forecast period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected Sunday afternoon and evening over portions of the
forecast area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 208 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Hot temperatures will continue today along with elevated fire
weather conditions. Expect RH`s dipping to 10 to 15 percent from
northeast WY into far western SD, with slightly higher RH`s
further east. However, relatively light winds are expected. Breezy
northerly winds are expected Monday behind a cold front, but RH`s
will be a bit higher. Nearly daily chances for storms will
continue through at least the middle of the week, with
temperatures early to mid week around average.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     SDZ030>032-041>044-046-047-049-075>077.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson