824
FXUS63 KUNR 150529
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1129 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cooler this week with chances for showers and storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Central Canada upper low will retrograde back west and support
lower heights into the Northern Plains this week as the western
CONUS ridge flattens. This will shift the main storm track and
baroclinic zone back south of the region with impulses traversing
the flow through most of the week, supporting chances for
showers/storms. Sfc trough will shift east through the FA this
evening as another stronger associated impulse shifts across ND.
Much drier air will settle into the western third with winds
veering NW most places overnight. Any convection associated with
this impulse will remain east of the FA from ND into eastern SD. A
secondary monsoon impulse (aided by the jet streak to the north)
will support elevated convection tonight across much of the area,
starting in the west this evening and spreading east overnight.
Expecting much of this activity to be sct-isold with mainly
limited rainfall amounts. Cool front will settled into the region
and stall across the far SW or just to the south. This feature
will provide the focus for convection the next few days as several
impulses traverse the Rockies ridge and advect over the region.
Enough monsoon and GOMEX moisture will be in place to support a
few areas of localized rainfall. However, convection will be
isold-sct through the period, outside of the central and southern
BH where the best chances for storms will be due to terrain
effects. A few strong to severe storms will be possible during the
upcoming week if deeper moisture and stronger flow lines up, and
times with peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1129 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected tonight into Monday.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two
will continue to develop across much of the area tonight.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon
into Monday night, especially from northeast WY to southwest SD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Hot temperatures will continue today along with elevated fire
weather conditions. Expect RH`s dipping to 10 to 15 percent from
northeast WY into far western SD, with slightly higher RH`s
further east. However, relatively light winds are expected. Breezy
northerly winds are expected Monday behind a cold front, but RH`s
will be a bit higher. Nearly daily chances for storms will
continue through at least the middle of the week, with
temperatures early to mid week around average.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...26
FIRE WEATHER...JC