Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
043
FNUS55 KTWC 151922
FWFTWC
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southeast Arizona
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1222 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
20-FOOT WIND FORECAST OF `LIGHT WINDS` INDICATES MAINLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
.DISCUSSION...Deeper moisture remains across southeast Arizona,
with typical mid July moisture levels expected through at least the
upcoming weekend. This will result in the daily cycle of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The main threats
will be strong, gusty and erratic outflow winds and heavy rainfall
leading to localized flash flooding. Minimum relative humidity
values will be 20-30 percent in most lower elevation locations and
25-40 percent in mountain areas. Away from thunderstorms, 20-foot
winds will generally be 15 mph or less, with afternoon/early evening
gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds overnight. Wind direction will
primarily be southwest through northwest through most of the week.
The exception will be in the upper Gila River valley around Safford,
where afternoon/early evening winds will be west-northwest at 15-20
mph and gusts to 25-30 mph through Tuesday.
AZZ150-161415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O`odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
1222 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
* Min Temperature..........73 to 83 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............53 to 63 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 7 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* LAL......................3.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
* Max Temperature..........97 to 107 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 degs.
* Min Humidity.............21 to 31 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest around 10 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* LAL......................3.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
* Mixing Height............8643 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........West 8 to 10 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (86430 knot-ft).
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
* Min Temperature..........74 to 84 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............47 to 57 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 4 to 8 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 10 mph shifting to the south
after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........40 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
* Max Temperature..........99 to 109 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 degs.
* Min Humidity.............18 to 28 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest around 10 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........East 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........30 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
* Mixing Height............9236 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Southwest 6 knots shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Good (55416 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 76 to 86. Highs 100 to 110. Light winds. Minimum Humidity
16 to 26 pct.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 76 to 86. Highs 100 to 110. Light winds. Minimum Humidity
18 to 28 pct.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 76 to 86. Highs 100 to 110. Light winds. Minimum Humidity
18 to 28 pct.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 76 to 86. Highs 99 to 109.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 76 to 86. Highs 99 to 109.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 150 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
LOCATION (2550 MSL)
$$
AZZ151-161415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-
1222 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Min Temperature..........65 to 75 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............71 to 81 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........50 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
* Max Temperature..........90 to 100 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............28 to 38 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........50 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
* Mixing Height............6955 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Northwest 7 to 12 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (83460 knot-ft).
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
* Min Temperature..........64 to 74 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............65 to 75 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 7 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........60 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly
cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
* Max Temperature..........92 to 102 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 degs.
* Min Humidity.............23 to 33 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 4 to 8 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........East around 20 mph becoming southeast
around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........60 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
* Mixing Height............8333 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Northwest 5 knots shifting to the east 9
knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (74997 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.THURSDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. Lows 68 to 78. Highs 93 to
103. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 22 to 32 pct.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 67 to 77. Highs 92 to 102. Light winds. Minimum Humidity
24 to 34 pct.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 67 to 77. Highs 92 to 102. Light winds. Minimum Humidity
24 to 34 pct.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
67 to 77.
Highs 91 to 101.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 65 to 75. Highs 90 to 100.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 151 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE BUENOS AIRES N.W.R. LOCATION
(3500 MSL)
$$
AZZ152-161415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
1222 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Min Temperature..........66 to 76 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............65 to 75 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........40 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............4 or low.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly sunny then becoming mostly
cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Max Temperature..........92 to 102 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............20 to 30 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........50 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
* Mixing Height............5015 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........West 7 knots increasing to northwest 17
knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (85255 knot-ft).
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
* Min Temperature..........65 to 75 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............60 to 70 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........60 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly sunny then becoming mostly
cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
* Max Temperature..........94 to 104 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............17 to 27 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........East 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........60 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
* Mixing Height............12866 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Northwest 6 knots shifting to the
southeast 10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (128660 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.THURSDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 67 to 77.
Highs 92 to 102. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 18 to 28 pct.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 67 to 77. Highs 92 to 102. Light winds. Minimum Humidity
21 to 31 pct.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 67 to 77. Highs 93 to 103. Light winds. Minimum Humidity
20 to 30 pct.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 66 to 76. Highs 90 to 100.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 65 to 75. Highs
88 to 98.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 152 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE CHIRICAHUA N.M. LOCATION (5400 MSL)
$$
AZZ153-161415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
1222 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Min Temperature..........60 to 70 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............57 to 67 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........30 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............4 or low.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly sunny then becoming mostly
cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
* Max Temperature..........85 to 95 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............17 to 27 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........70 pct.
* LAL......................5.
* Haines Index.............4 or low.
* Mixing Height............11001 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........North 8 knots increasing to northeast 19
knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (209019 knot-ft).
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
* Min Temperature..........59 to 69 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............51 to 61 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 7 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........60 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly sunny then becoming mostly
cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
* Max Temperature..........85 to 95 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............18 to 28 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming southwest around 10
mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........East around 10 mph shifting to the south
in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........80 pct.
* LAL......................5.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
* Mixing Height............12209 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Northeast 7 knots shifting to the south
10 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (122090 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.THURSDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. Lows 60 to 70. Highs 81 to
91. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 25 to 35 pct.
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 81 to
91. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 26 to 36 pct.
.SATURDAY...Thunderstorms and chance of showers. Lows 60 to 70.
Highs 82 to 92. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 25 to 35 pct.
.SUNDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. Lows 57 to 67. Highs 79 to
89.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 58 to 68. Highs 77 to 87.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 153 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE POINT OF PINES LOCATION (6040 MSL)
$$
AZZ154-161415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
1222 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Min Temperature..........60 to 70 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............63 to 73 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........50 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............4 or low.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly
cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
* Max Temperature..........80 to 90 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............29 to 39 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........60 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
* Mixing Height............8875 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Northwest 10 to 12 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (97625 knot-ft).
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Min Temperature..........60 to 70 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............57 to 67 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........50 pct.
* LAL......................4.
* Haines Index.............3 or very low.
.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly sunny then becoming mostly
cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
* Max Temperature..........82 to 92 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 degs.
* Min Humidity.............24 to 34 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 4 to 8 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........East around 20 mph becoming southeast
around 10 mph in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........70 pct.
* LAL......................5.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
* Mixing Height............14347 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........North 10 knots shifting to the east 11
knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (157817 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.THURSDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63 to 73. Highs 81 to
91. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 25 to 35 pct.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 62 to 72. Highs 81 to 91. Light winds. Minimum Humidity
28 to 38 pct.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 63 to 73. Highs 82 to 92. Light winds. Minimum Humidity
27 to 37 pct.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
62 to 72.
Highs 79 to 89.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 61 to 71. Highs 78 to 88.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 154 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE ZONE
$$
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