526
FXUS65 KTWC 030917
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture remains across southeast Arizona today,
however thunderstorm coverage will be less compared to Wednesday.
The storms that do occur will produce locally heavy rain and gusty
winds. A drying trend is expected for the July 4th holiday and this
weekend with storm coverage more isolated and focused on locales
south of Tucson. Temperatures will remain below normal through
Friday before warming back up to above normal levels by Sunday and
continuing through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Skies are mostly clear across the western deserts this
morning with mostly cloudy skies from Tucson eastward as residual
showers continue. In the very near term, we do expect this activity
to continue to lessen and IR satellite shows cloud tops continue to
warm which indicates that leftover shower activity should diminish
through the early morning hours.

There is ample moisture across our forecast area today and that is
reflected in the surface dewpoints which are currently in the 60s
across all valleys. As the mid-upper level trough axis approaches,
considerably drier air that will move in aloft above 500mb today.
However, with deeper low level moisture, even though the atmosphere
is at least partially worked over from yesterday, we expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the west to
southwest flow from midday through the afternoon into the early
evening. While the storms will be much less organized compared to
yesterday, they will still produce locally heavy rain and gusty
winds. Temperatures today will be about 5 to 8 degrees below
normal.

For Independence Day, there will be continued drying aloft as high
pressure aloft starts to establish itself just to our south. The
combination of the drier air aloft along with some subsidence will
result in a lower grade monsoon day with generally isolated to low
end scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest chances in the
30-40% range will be in Santa Cruz and southern Cochise Counties.
Most of the convective activity should be diminishing after about 8
PM for fireworks displays across the region. Temperatures Friday
will be about 5 degrees below normal.

A low grade monsoon pattern this weekend as high pressure aloft
strengthens with just some residual recycled moisture for isolated
thunderstorms mainly focused along the Int`l border where there is a
slightly better vertical moisture profile. Temperatures this weekend
will warm back up to seasonable levels Saturday and about 3 to 6
degrees above normal Sunday.

For next week, high pressure aloft will remain over Arizona
resulting in continued above normal temperatures. There are minor
differences in the ensembles with the high placement and this can
can be the differentiator for southern AZ between mostly dry and
very hot or with the high far enough north, better easterly flow
with some moisture to bring low to mid grade monsoon activity. The
NBM auto populated PoPs are aggressively high next week (well above
climatology and known wet bias early in the monsoon). Those high
PoPs aren`t really reasonable in this pattern so we lowered the
official forecast PoPs into the 20-40% range each day next week to
better reflect the flow pattern. High temperatures will remain above
normal next week with the above normal heights under the subtropical
high.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z.
Leftover BKN-OVC clouds 8-14k ft AGL east of KTUS will diminish thru
03/13Z. Otherwise, FEW-SCT 7-12k ft thru 03/18Z, then becoming SCT-
BKN 7-12k ft AGL from KTUS eastward thru 04/05Z before diminishing
thru end of valid period. Scattered SHRA/TSRA is expected 03/19Z-
04/04Z with CIGS BKN 5-8k ft AGL and gusty outflow winds up to 35
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Slightly below normal temperatures through
Friday, then warming back this weekend into next week. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening with
locally heavy rainfall. A decrease in thunderstorm activity is
expected Friday through the weekend as the area transitions into a
low grade monsoon pattern. An eventual uptick in monsoon activity is
expected next week but will be dependent on how quick the high
pressure aloft shifts north. Winds generally light and under 15 mph
with the exception of gusty and erratic winds up to 35-45 mph near
any thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$


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