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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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328 FXUS64 KTSA 140515 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Ongoing forecast is trending well tonight with light southerly wind and a few passing mid and high clouds. Some of the latest guidance suggests high-based convection may drift into nern OK from ern KS after sunrise Sunday, similar to past several mornings. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A mid level impulse continued to drift southeast across the region this afternoon with scattered cloud cover across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Latest Satellite data showed cloud tops warming across Northwest Arkansas...while trying to cool slightly across Northern Oklahoma. A low potential for a stray shower remains this afternoon near the Kansas border. However...with the high base of the cloud cover...any precip that may make it to the surface should be a sprinkle at most. Thus...will continue to keep PoPs in Northeast Oklahoma below mentionable criteria. Cloud cover across the northern portion of the CWA should scatter out this evening and tonight...while continuing to be scattered/broken across the southern half of the CWA in response to a mid level low lifting northeast across Eastern Texas. Low temps tonight are expected to remain in the 70s for most locations with continued southerly low level winds. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Hot and humid conditions begin to expand across the CWA Sunday and continue into Tuesday as high pressure...currently centered near the Four Corners region...builds eastward over the Southern/Central Plains. This will create high temps of mid 90s to around 103 deg each day with heat index values of 100 to near 110 deg. Have added parts of Northeast Oklahoma into the Arkansas River Valley of West Central Arkansas into a heat advisory for Sunday afternoon. Depending on how dewpoint trends go Sunday afternoon...there is potential that the current heat advisory could be expanded over more of Eastern Oklahoma. Additional heat headlines are likely Monday and Tuesday as well. The mid level low lifting northeast over Texas this afternoon should remain just to the southeast and east of the CWA into Monday with the main impact being scattered cloud cover over Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Any associated precip should stay southeast of the CWA. The dome of high pressure is progged to retreat westward Tuesday/Wednesday which will bring northwesterly upper level flow back over the CWA for the second half of next week. A couple low pressure systems are forecast to drop through the region with a return of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs look to begin Tuesday night across Northeast Oklahoma and expand over the CWA Wednesday into Thursday with the upper level trof axis and associated frontal boundary moving into the region. Latest model solutions indicate the frontal boundary making through Southeast Oklahoma Thursday night...though keeping the upper level trof axis over the region for Friday. Thus...will hold onto slight chance PoPs for parts of Southeast Oklahoma Friday. With the precip chances and the boundary expected to move through the CWA...temps Wednesday should remain hot/humid for the southern half of the CWA and then become below seasonal average for Thursday/Friday. High temps back in the 80s are currently forecast late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Any early morning convection is expected to remain too isolated to warrant mention across NE OK / far NW AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 101 80 103 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 77 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 76 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 75 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 74 96 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 73 97 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 75 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 10 F10 77 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 75 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-055-059-060-066-070>072-074. AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...69 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...07