448
FXUS64 KTSA 081541
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1041 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Isolated to scattered showers with some embedded lightning
continue this morning across the region, mostly along a frontal
boundary in NE OK and ahead of Beryl in SE OK/ W-Central AR.
Low chances of showers/ storms persist for much of the region
this morning, but most areas (especially north) will probably
remain dry into early afternoon. Expectation is for
aforementioned boundary to lift north later this afternoon as the
tropical system approaches our area. This will provide
increasingly widespread precip (and highest PoPs) across SE OK/
W-Central AR this afternoon into the evening, with more scattered
development for the remainder of the CWA. A storm or two may
briefly become strong with some higher wind gusts, but much of the
severe threat (including a low tornado potential) is expected to
remain east of our FA. The main hazard with storms today will be
in the form of heavy rain and potential for localized flash
flooding. The risk for flooding will continue and likely intensify
later tonight into tomorrow morning with the passage of
widespread tropical rain (SE OK/ W-Central & NW AR). A Flood Watch
remains in effect for these areas from 1 PM today until 1 PM
tomorrow.

In general, the current forecast is in good shape and aside from
some tweaks to PoPs and temps, no significant deviations were
required for the morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Tuesday morning)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A band of scattered storms, stretching from near Tulsa and
extending NE roughly along I-44, is occurring along a weak H85
front in advance of an approaching upper trough. This activity
should fade by early to mid morning, with some redevelopment
possible this afternoon across far NE OK as the boundary lifts
north.

Focus then shifts to our south with the approach of Beryl.
The system is being drawn north by the aforementioned upper
trough, which it will eventually merge with as the system recurves
to the northeast over the ArkLaTex and then thru central AR
tonight into Tuesday. Bands of thunderstorms will begin developing
across southeast OK and west-central AR by early afternoon and
will spread north thru the afternoon with gusty wind and locally
heavy rain potential. The right front quadrant of the system, an
area well known for increased tornadic potential in landfalling
tropical systems, is expected to stay just to the east of the
forecast area given the current forecast track. By tonight, a
swath of tropical rain (probably not much lightning at all) in
association with the core of Beryl will lift up into far SE OK and
NW AR, and then exit on Tuesday morning as the now remnant low of
Beryl moves away from the region. Wind gusts will pick up as well
tonight into Tuesday morning with the closest approach of the low
pressure, especially in the terrain of the Ouachitas, where gusts
to near advisory strength are possible.

Given the combination of today`s round of heavy rain producing
storms and the core rains of Beryl tonight into Tuesday morning,
widespread 2 to 3 inch rains are forecast across far SE OK up into
NW AR, with locally heavier amounts. With some potential for
flash flooding from these rains, along with coordination from
neighboring offices, a flood watch has been issued for this
afternoon thru midday Tuesday.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The remnant low of Beryl will be moving away from the region by
Tuesday afternoon, and will be the lead in to a much quieter part
of the forecast. The general consensus of the models is that the
central CONUS trough will shift east and mid-level heights will
rise over Oklahoma and Arkansas as the western CONUS ridge shifts
east. It is worth noting that the 00Z runs of the EC and GFS are
not as pronounced with the ridging aloft, but we`ll see if this
is a trend. The consensus dry forecast with a warming trend back
into the upper 90s to near 100 by late in the week and into the
weekend will be maintained for now.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the morning and likely at
least part of the afternoon, before shower and thunderstorm
coverage increases later today. As more widespread rain moves in
from the south from afternoon into the evening, a general
deterioration in flight conditions can be expected, with most of
SE OK and western AR eventually seeing prevailing MVFR conditions.
AT least temporary reductions to IFR will be possible in heavy
rain showers tonight, with east winds increasing at KFSM with
strong LLWS by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  68  85  66 /  50  60  30  10
FSM   83  68  81  66 /  90  90  80  10
MLC   81  67  83  64 /  90  70  40  10
BVO   85  68  85  63 /  30  60  20   0
FYV   82  66  76  61 /  80  80  80  20
BYV   83  66  74  61 /  80  90  90  20
MKO   84  67  83  64 /  80  70  50  10
MIO   84  67  81  62 /  40  70  50  10
F10   83  67  83  64 /  80  60  40  10
HHW   81  68  82  65 /  90  80  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ049-053-072-074>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14