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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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986 FXUS64 KTSA 081750 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Isolated to scattered showers with some embedded lightning continue this morning across the region, mostly along a frontal boundary in NE OK and ahead of Beryl in SE OK/ W-Central AR. Low chances of showers/ storms persist for much of the region this morning, but most areas (especially north) will probably remain dry into early afternoon. Expectation is for aforementioned boundary to lift north later this afternoon as the tropical system approaches our area. This will provide increasingly widespread precip (and highest PoPs) across SE OK/ W-Central AR this afternoon into the evening, with more scattered development for the remainder of the CWA. A storm or two may briefly become strong with some higher wind gusts, but much of the severe threat (including a low tornado potential) is expected to remain east of our FA. The main hazard with storms today will be in the form of heavy rain and potential for localized flash flooding. The risk for flooding will continue and likely intensify later tonight into tomorrow morning with the passage of widespread tropical rain (SE OK/ W-Central & NW AR). A Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas from 1 PM today until 1 PM tomorrow. In general, the current forecast is in good shape and aside from some tweaks to PoPs and temps, no significant deviations were required for the morning update. && .SHORT TERM... (Today thru Tuesday morning) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A band of scattered storms, stretching from near Tulsa and extending NE roughly along I-44, is occurring along a weak H85 front in advance of an approaching upper trough. This activity should fade by early to mid morning, with some redevelopment possible this afternoon across far NE OK as the boundary lifts north. Focus then shifts to our south with the approach of Beryl. The system is being drawn north by the aforementioned upper trough, which it will eventually merge with as the system recurves to the northeast over the ArkLaTex and then thru central AR tonight into Tuesday. Bands of thunderstorms will begin developing across southeast OK and west-central AR by early afternoon and will spread north thru the afternoon with gusty wind and locally heavy rain potential. The right front quadrant of the system, an area well known for increased tornadic potential in landfalling tropical systems, is expected to stay just to the east of the forecast area given the current forecast track. By tonight, a swath of tropical rain (probably not much lightning at all) in association with the core of Beryl will lift up into far SE OK and NW AR, and then exit on Tuesday morning as the now remnant low of Beryl moves away from the region. Wind gusts will pick up as well tonight into Tuesday morning with the closest approach of the low pressure, especially in the terrain of the Ouachitas, where gusts to near advisory strength are possible. Given the combination of today`s round of heavy rain producing storms and the core rains of Beryl tonight into Tuesday morning, widespread 2 to 3 inch rains are forecast across far SE OK up into NW AR, with locally heavier amounts. With some potential for flash flooding from these rains, along with coordination from neighboring offices, a flood watch has been issued for this afternoon thru midday Tuesday. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The remnant low of Beryl will be moving away from the region by Tuesday afternoon, and will be the lead in to a much quieter part of the forecast. The general consensus of the models is that the central CONUS trough will shift east and mid-level heights will rise over Oklahoma and Arkansas as the western CONUS ridge shifts east. It is worth noting that the 00Z runs of the EC and GFS are not as pronounced with the ridging aloft, but we`ll see if this is a trend. The consensus dry forecast with a warming trend back into the upper 90s to near 100 by late in the week and into the weekend will be maintained for now. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions will tend to deteriorate this afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage across E OK & NW AR from south to north. Will likely see some stronger winds and periods of MVFR (perhaps IFR) conditions for sites affected by precip this afternoon/ evening... especially for FSM & MLC. Precip will likely become more widespread and steady tonight into tomorrow morning with cigs & vsbys forecast to fall into MVFR/ IFR category, primarily across SE OK & NW AR sites. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into tomorrow morning. LLWS is expected late in the period for NW AR sites. Flight conditions should improve tomorrow morning across E OK and by the afternoon hours in NW AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 69 88 66 93 / 40 20 0 0 FSM 69 85 66 92 / 80 60 10 0 MLC 67 85 65 92 / 40 20 0 0 BVO 65 88 63 92 / 30 10 0 0 FYV 65 81 61 89 / 70 70 10 0 BYV 65 78 61 87 / 80 80 10 0 MKO 67 85 65 91 / 40 30 0 0 MIO 68 83 63 89 / 60 40 0 0 F10 66 86 64 92 / 30 10 0 0 HHW 67 85 66 90 / 80 20 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ049-053-072-074>076. AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ002-010-011-019-020- 029. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...43