662
FXUS64 KTSA 090526
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 938 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The center of tropical system Beryl is approaching the Arklatex
region and latest guidance is generally in good agreement on track
and speed to the northeast through the overnight hours. Precip
shield will steadily consolidate nearer the system center
overnight and a corridor of heavy rainfall remains likely. The
heaviest rainfall axis is likely just on the edge of the local
forecast area and points eastward, however any westward trend of
the expected footprint would fall in the flood watch area and no
geographic area changes are planned. Updated forecast did adjust
precip chances through the evening otherwise adjustments were
largely based on observed trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Moderate to heavy rain is forecast to be ongoing at the start of
the long-term period, mostly affecting far southeastern OK and
northwest AR through at least midday Tuesday. Consensus in model
guidance kicks majority of the rain, especially the heavier rain,
out of the forecast area by early afternoon as a mid-level trough
carries the remnants of Beryl northeastward and out of the
forecast area. Quieter and much more benign weather is anticipated
after Tuesday as the trough axis shifts east and mid/upper-level
ridging tries to penetrate over much of OK. Although models keep
most of the area rain-free through the remainder of the week, weak
perturbations in the northwest flow aloft may try to allow
diurnally-driven spotty shower/storms for portions of the forecast
area Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, the main storyline will be
a gradual warming trend that will persist into the upcoming
weekend and into early next week, with widespread high
temperatures returning into the mid-upper 90s and lower 100s by
Saturday. More heat headlines appear likely towards the end of the
week through early next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Area of rain, heavy at times, will continue to lift across far
eastern OK and western AR through the night. There remains some
likelihood of MVFR ceilings becoming more prevalent later tonight,
especially across western AR, before improving by Tuesday
afternoon as the tropical system departs. There is also some
indications of fog development across eastern OK overnight, but
confidence is still rather low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   66  92  70  95 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   65  92  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   63  92  67  94 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   61  89  66  92 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   61  87  65  91 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   65  91  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   63  89  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   64  92  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   66  90  70  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ049-053-069-072-
     074>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14