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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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482 FXUS64 KTSA 140741 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Hot and humid conditions intensify today across the region as the mid level ridge continues to expand eastward into the Plains. Highs today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. That combined with dewpoints in the low 70s will yield heat index values in excess of 100 to 108 degrees this afternoon. Have expanded the heat advisory across most of northeast Oklahoma for this afternoon, for heat indices over 105. A few isolated showers/storms could also impact parts of northern Oklahoma along the Kansas border this morning, but coverage is expected to be minimal before diminishing later this morning. Breezy southerly winds will also increase again this afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 mph common north of I-40 in eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The heat continues into early next week with highs expected to range from the upper 90s to 103 across the region. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed Monday and Tuesday as well. Dry weather will dominate during this timeframe under influence of the ridge. A pattern shift remains on the horizon beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday. The upper ridge is progged to shift back westward by Wednesday, allowing modest northwesterly flow aloft to develop over much of Central and Southern Plains. This will allow a frontal boundary to drop into the area Tuesday night/Wednesday, with shower and thunderstorm chances accompanying the boundary. Better storm/heavy rain chances are shaping up to reside across the eastern half of the forecast area, where better lift is forecast to be associated with the mid level trough axis. Widespread rain chances are still expected over much of the CWA through Thursday though, along with the arrival of below normal temperatures. the boundary looks to clear southeast Oklahoma on Thursday, but the trough axis will remain nearby, so PoPs will stay over the area on Friday as well. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that central and eastern CONUS troughing will last through the rest of the forecast period, meaning cooler temperatures and periodic rain chances will last into next weekend. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Any early morning convection is expected to remain too isolated to warrant mention across NE OK / far NW AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 80 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 98 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 96 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 99 75 102 77 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 95 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 96 75 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 96 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 96 77 99 78 / 10 0 0 0 F10 96 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 94 75 96 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>062-064-066-067-070>072-074. AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...07