914
FXUS64 KTSA 120452
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 909 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Weak upper wave drifting E-SE withing fairly benign mid level
flow may touch off isolated showers and storms mainly after 06z
for parts of far NE OK and NW AR. Have opted to remove PoPs across
NE OK through 06z as latest hi-res guidance supports latest trends.
Overnight temperatures look reasonable so will leave them as they are.
Remaining first period elements will be lest as is.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Overall, expecting similar conditions tomorrow with mostly sunny
skies. There was enough potential for showers and storms to
introduce slight chance PoPs across Osage/ Pawnee counties late
tomorrow afternoon/ evening as another subtle disturbance moves
through the region. But otherwise, expect much of the FA to stay
dry. Otherwise, the main theme of the extended period continues to
be increasing potential for dangerous heat. Upper level ridging
currently centered on the intermountain west will expand eastward
over our area by this weekend & early next week. With southerly
flow resuming at the sfc promoting elevated dew points, heat
indices will likely require heat headlines late this weekend and
early next week. Opted to blend with NBM 90th percentile for dew
points during this period across NW AR where Beryl produced heavy
rainfall recently. By mid week or so, long range guidance
suggests a front will attempt to push into the region. If this
were to occur, would likely see some rain out of it as well as a
return to more seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and storms currently across SE KS will build
southward through the morning however coverage and duration
remains uncertain toward the NW AR terminals. Any flight level impacts
will likely be brief with any convection dissipating and/or moving
further east through the late morning hours. Aside from the early
day precip potential, VFR conditions are expected area wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  98  76  98 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   73  97  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   72  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  99  71  99 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   67  94  69  95 /  20  20   0   0
BYV   69  94  68  96 /  20  20   0   0
MKO   72  94  72  95 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   71  94  73  95 /  20  20   0   0
F10   73  95  72  96 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   71  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07