077
FXUS64 KTSA 120807
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
307 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Weak upper wave continues to drift southeastward this morning
across eastern Kansas/western Missouri. A cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms has been persistent overnight near the nose
of the low level jet/mid level trough axis intersection across
southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri. a few storms have
developed into far northeast Oklahoma as well, but less favorable
instability and shear has allowed these storms to stay relatively
benign in our forecast area. This activity will slowly drift
eastward into northwest Arkansas through the rest of the morning,
and gradually weaken later this morning with the diminishing low
level jet after sunrise. Brief heavy downpours and some gusty
winds will be the main threats in our area with any storms this
morning. The rest of the area will remain quiet, with a mild start
to the day with temperatures starting out in the mid to upper 70s
for most locations. The warm up will continue today as the
expanding western CONUS ridge hedges further east. The heat and
humidity will lead to most locations seeing heat index values in
excess of 100 degrees this afternoon. Some locations could push
Heat Advisory criteria, but will leave for the next shift to
monitor the trends if one is needed later today. A few spotty
showers/storms will be possible later this afternoon across parts
of northern Oklahoma as another weak disturbance moves across the
region and the deeply mixed boundary layer will be uncapped by
late afternoon. Again, brief heavy downpours and some strong wind
gusts will be the main concern if any storms develop.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The main theme for much of the extended period will be the
building heat across the region this weekend into early next week
as the upper level ridge becomes planted over the area. A few
storms could graze far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
again late Friday night into Saturday as the area remains on the
periphery of the ridge and several weak disturbances move through
the flow. By later Saturday through the middle of next week
however, hot and dry will be the story under the ridge. Heat
headlines will likely be needed in the coming days. Relief could
arrive by the middle part of next week as the upper ridge begins
to weaken and shift southward, allowing a boundary to drop into
the region. This would bring more rain chances along with cooler
temperatures for the latter part of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and storms currently across SE KS will build
southward through the morning however coverage and duration
remains uncertain toward the NW AR terminals. Any flight level impacts
will likely be brief with any convection dissipating and/or moving
further east through the late morning hours. Aside from the early
day precip potential, VFR conditions are expected area wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  78  98  77 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   96  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   94  73  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   99  73  98  73 /  20  20  10   0
FYV   92  72  95  71 /  20   0  10   0
BYV   92  73  95  72 /  20   0  10   0
MKO   95  74  96  75 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  75  96  75 /  20  10  10   0
F10   96  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   94  72  93  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07