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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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927 FXUS64 KTSA 122323 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon ) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Hot weather is occurring across the area with most areas topping out in the 90s to near 100F this afternoon. An upper level trough axis remains overhead, with the resulting lift allowing for a couple of storms in northwest AR this afternoon. As with the last few nights, a few isolated storms could develop just about anywhere overnight. The best probabilities will be across far northeast OK and northwest AR, with impacts being limited to brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A strong mid level ridge currently centered in southern Nevada will shift eastward and expand into the area. Gradually rising heights will translate into warming at the surface, with high temperatures rising into the upper 90s to low 100s over the weekend and into early next week. Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect water vapor into the area, so dew points will remain elevated, generally near or above the 90th percentile for this time of year. The combination of high temperatures and humidity will lead to another round of potential heat products through the weekend and into early next week. Marginal Heat Advisory conditions for a few counties are expected Saturday, but will let the next shift evaluate the need for any products. Heat will become more widespread Sunday and Monday with a better chance of heat product issuance. A weak upper level trough axis will remain above the previously mentioned ridge the next few days (200-300 hPa) providing some lift, but this will be mitigated by mid to lower atmosphere subsidence and too much dry air above the surface. In the end, an isolated pesky shower might be possible Saturday evening into Sunday, but the probability will generally be too low to carry mentionable pops in the grids. By the middle of next week the mid level ridge will again weaken and retreat back to the west with evidence of weak troughing developing south of the area. Then, as another mid level trough rounds the ridge and dives into the central Plains it will interact with the trough to the south of the area. The end result should be cooler temperatures and an increase in precipitation chances as a cold front surges into the region. Ensemble cluster guidance indicates that subtle differences in the position of the various players in this pattern will affect how much rainfall and cooling occurs, but with a solid ensemble signal pops were boosted for this period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty southwest winds will once again increase by mid day Saturday, primarily at NE OK TAF sites. Latest CAM guidance suggests isolated showers/thunderstorms will likely remain north of terminals late tonight into Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 98 78 99 / 10 10 0 10 FSM 74 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 10 MLC 74 95 73 96 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 74 97 73 99 / 10 20 0 10 FYV 72 94 71 96 / 0 20 0 10 BYV 72 94 71 96 / 0 20 0 10 MKO 74 96 74 96 / 0 20 0 10 MIO 74 95 74 97 / 10 20 0 10 F10 74 96 73 97 / 0 10 0 10 HHW 72 94 73 93 / 0 10 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...12