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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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001 FXUS64 KTSA 130500 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1200 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 903 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Current forecast in good shape heading into the overnight period. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible across parts of far NE OK and NW AR towards sunrise, and current low PoPs has this accounted for. Low temperatures are in line with latest trends and observations, as are the remaining first period elements. No update is planned at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A strong mid level ridge currently centered in southern Nevada will shift eastward and expand into the area. Gradually rising heights will translate into warming at the surface, with high temperatures rising into the upper 90s to low 100s over the weekend and into early next week. Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect water vapor into the area, so dew points will remain elevated, generally near or above the 90th percentile for this time of year. The combination of high temperatures and humidity will lead to another round of potential heat products through the weekend and into early next week. Marginal Heat Advisory conditions for a few counties are expected Saturday, but will let the next shift evaluate the need for any products. Heat will become more widespread Sunday and Monday with a better chance of heat product issuance. A weak upper level trough axis will remain above the previously mentioned ridge the next few days (200-300 hPa) providing some lift, but this will be mitigated by mid to lower atmosphere subsidence and too much dry air above the surface. In the end, an isolated pesky shower might be possible Saturday evening into Sunday, but the probability will generally be too low to carry mentionable pops in the grids. By the middle of next week the mid level ridge will again weaken and retreat back to the west with evidence of weak troughing developing south of the area. Then, as another mid level trough rounds the ridge and dives into the central Plains it will interact with the trough to the south of the area. The end result should be cooler temperatures and an increase in precipitation chances as a cold front surges into the region. Ensemble cluster guidance indicates that subtle differences in the position of the various players in this pattern will affect how much rainfall and cooling occurs, but with a solid ensemble signal pops were boosted for this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Isolated convection has developed across south central KS and this corridor of mid level moisture will support low shower and thunderstorm chance into far NE OK / far NW AR later tonight into Saturday morning. Forecast will include impact mention of this potential and adjust as coverage becomes more clear. Otherwise VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 98 78 99 / 10 10 0 10 FSM 74 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 10 MLC 74 95 73 96 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 74 97 73 99 / 10 20 0 10 FYV 72 94 71 96 / 0 20 0 10 BYV 72 94 71 96 / 0 20 0 10 MKO 74 96 74 96 / 0 20 0 10 MIO 74 95 74 97 / 10 20 0 10 F10 74 96 73 97 / 0 10 0 10 HHW 72 94 73 93 / 0 10 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07