820
FXUS64 KTSA 141950
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A light south breeze will persist overnight keeping temperatures
on the warm side. Overnight lows will be in the 70s to near 80,
with the warmest readings in the Tulsa metropolitan area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the year thus far,
with afternoon high temperatures from the upper 90s to near 105
along with breezy south winds. Afternoon heat index values will
reach near or above 105 in all areas, so have issued a heat
advisory for the entire forecast area for Monday afternoon. Parts
of northeast Oklahoma will be near excessive heat warning
criteria, and this area will need to be monitored for a potential
upgrade to a warning.

Tuesday will be another hot day, but a weak frontal boundary will
be approaching from the north. This may result in a bit more
cloudiness, and some potential for late day convection near the
Kansas and Missouri borders. This may hold temperatures down a bit
in northern areas Tuesday afternoon.

Shower and storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags south across
the area. Rain chances continue into Thursday, especially south
where the frontal boundary may still be nearby. Overall, the
models have sped up the progression of the front and associated
rain chances, so have adjusted pops accordingly from those
suggested by the NBM.

A welcome break from the heat will occur from Wednesday through
next weekend, with below normal temperatures expected. Rain
chances will start to increase again later next weekend as an
upper level trough persists over the area, but models differ on
the details, so the chances will remain low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 104  81 102 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   78 101  79 101 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   77  99  79  98 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   76 105  77 100 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   73  98  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   77 100  78 100 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   76 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  20
F10   77 100  78 100 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   75  98  76  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>062-064-066-
     067-070>072-074.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14