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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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504 FXUS64 KTSA 192334 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Chamber of Commerce weather (at least for mid July) this afternoon, coming off the unseasonably cold start with temperatures starting in the mid 50s in some locations. Cool conditions again expected && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A few scattered showers from overnight complex to the northwest could move move into far northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning. Any storms will likely be weakening by this time as a relatively dry air- mass remains in place. Better precipitation chances are expected Saturday night into Sunday as initial mid level wave/upper jet streak moves through the region. Longwave trough will remain over the central/southern Plains with secondary disturbance/upper low approaching from the north Sunday night. Another round of scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into Monday. Rainfall totals through Monday will generally stay in the 0.5-1.0 inch range, although locally higher amounts are possible in a few locations. Modest warming trend will develop for the middle to latter part of the work next as upper ridging slowly builds in from the west. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across far SE OK/NW AR, mainly in the higher terrain areas. Main upper high will remain over the desert Southwest, keeping temperatures near or only slightly above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Few to scattered mid and high clouds should continue into the overnight hours across the CWA. Late tonight into Saturday morning cloud cover is expected to increase from the northwest as an area of low pressure sags southward into the Central Plains. A slight chance of precip could become possible for Northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning...or a possible outflow boundary moving into the region from ongoing convection in Northern Kansas. For now will hold of on mentioning in the TAFs due to uncertainties in coverage/impact to any one terminal. During the day Saturday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast. A slight chance of showers/storms will remain for Northeast Oklahoma during the day...with the greater chances just outside of this TAF period. Winds through the period should continue to be light/variable into Saturday with a shift more toward southerly winds during the day. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 88 69 86 / 0 20 40 50 FSM 66 89 71 88 / 0 0 10 40 MLC 65 89 69 86 / 0 10 30 50 BVO 62 85 66 85 / 0 20 50 50 FYV 59 86 66 84 / 0 0 20 40 BYV 59 86 66 83 / 0 0 10 30 MKO 64 89 69 84 / 0 10 30 50 MIO 62 84 67 82 / 0 10 40 50 F10 64 89 69 85 / 0 10 40 50 HHW 65 89 69 86 / 0 0 10 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...20