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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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169 FXUS64 KTSA 142326 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A light south breeze will persist overnight keeping temperatures on the warm side. Overnight lows will be in the 70s to near 80, with the warmest readings in the Tulsa metropolitan area. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the year thus far, with afternoon high temperatures from the upper 90s to near 105 along with breezy south winds. Afternoon heat index values will reach near or above 105 in all areas, so have issued a heat advisory for the entire forecast area for Monday afternoon. Parts of northeast Oklahoma will be near excessive heat warning criteria, and this area will need to be monitored for a potential upgrade to a warning. Tuesday will be another hot day, but a weak frontal boundary will be approaching from the north. This may result in a bit more cloudiness, and some potential for late day convection near the Kansas and Missouri borders. This may hold temperatures down a bit in northern areas Tuesday afternoon. Shower and storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday night and Wednesday as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags south across the area. Rain chances continue into Thursday, especially south where the frontal boundary may still be nearby. Overall, the models have sped up the progression of the front and associated rain chances, so have adjusted pops accordingly from those suggested by the NBM. A welcome break from the heat will occur from Wednesday through next weekend, with below normal temperatures expected. Rain chances will start to increase again later next weekend as an upper level trough persists over the area, but models differ on the details, so the chances will remain low at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Diurnal cloud cover will continue to dissipate this evening with mostly clear skies to a few passing high clouds forecast overnight tonight. Few to scattered mid and high clouds return during the day Monday across the CWA. Winds through the period become light out of the south to southeast for tonight and then increase again from the south to southwest Monday. The exception being KFSM where more easterly winds return overnight tonight before shifting out of the south southwest Monday late morning. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 80 104 81 102 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 78 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 77 99 79 98 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 76 105 77 100 / 0 0 0 20 FYV 73 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 75 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 76 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 20 F10 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 75 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>062-064-066- 067-070>072-074. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...20