592
FXUS64 KTSA 150343
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1043 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Light southerly wind overnight as low pressure is centered over
southwestern and central Kansas. A few passing high clouds expected
across the area tonight, otherwise skies will be clear. Seasonably
warm overnight temperatures expected, which will set the stage for a
hot day on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the year thus far,
with afternoon high temperatures from the upper 90s to near 105
along with breezy south winds. Afternoon heat index values will
reach near or above 105 in all areas, so have issued a heat
advisory for the entire forecast area for Monday afternoon. Parts
of northeast Oklahoma will be near excessive heat warning
criteria, and this area will need to be monitored for a potential
upgrade to a warning.

Tuesday will be another hot day, but a weak frontal boundary will
be approaching from the north. This may result in a bit more
cloudiness, and some potential for late day convection near the
Kansas and Missouri borders. This may hold temperatures down a bit
in northern areas Tuesday afternoon.

Shower and storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags south across
the area. Rain chances continue into Thursday, especially south
where the frontal boundary may still be nearby. Overall, the
models have sped up the progression of the front and associated
rain chances, so have adjusted pops accordingly from those
suggested by the NBM.

A welcome break from the heat will occur from Wednesday through
next weekend, with below normal temperatures expected. Rain
chances will start to increase again later next weekend as an
upper level trough persists over the area, but models differ on
the details, so the chances will remain low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Diurnal cloud cover will continue to dissipate this evening with
mostly clear skies to a few passing high clouds forecast overnight
tonight. Few to scattered mid and high clouds return during the
day Monday across the CWA. Winds through the period become light
out of the south to southeast for tonight and then increase again
from the south to southwest Monday. The exception being KFSM where
more easterly winds return overnight tonight before shifting out
of the south southwest Monday late morning. VFR conditions are
forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 104  81 102 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   78 101  79 101 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   77  99  79  98 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   76 105  77 100 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   73  98  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   77 100  78 100 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   76 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  20
F10   77 100  78 100 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   75  98  76  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20