615
FXUS64 KTSA 151011
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The hottest day of the summer looks to be on tap for today across
the region. A warm start this morning with temperatures in the
upper 70s to mid 80s currently noted across the area will give way
to highs this afternoon climbing into the triple digits as the
upper ridge axis becomes centered over the Southern Plains. The
temperatures combined with dewpoints in the 70s will make for
heat index values ranging from 105 to 110+ degrees this afternoon.
Have opted to upgrade part of the Heat Advisory to a warning for
this afternoon where dewpoint trends have been highest over the
recent days. Further upgrades could be needed as trends suggest
later this morning. Breezy southerly winds will continue today as
well, which will help slightly with the mugginess, but dangerous
heat conditions are expected areawide this afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Another warm night will lead to one last hot day for a little
while on Tuesday as temperatures again soar into the 100s for many
locations. A frontal boundary will begin to work into the region
Tuesday afternoon however as the upper ridge shifts westward,
which could bring some increased cloud cover along with a chance
for a few thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon near the I-44
corridor. If storms do develop, strong to severe wind gusts will
be possible given modest instability and a deeply mixed boundary
layer aiding in downdraft enhancement.

Latest guidance continues to show a faster progression of the
frontal boundary through the area on Wednesday and clearing
southeast Oklahoma Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances will
follow with the front from north to south on Wednesday. Have ended
PoPs a little quicker than the NBM suggests owing to a faster
progression of the front through southeast Oklahoma by Thursday
morning. Cooler temperatures will follow the front, with below
average highs expected through the end of the week.

Northwest flow aloft remains planted over the Plains into early
next week, allowing temps to stay seasonably mild through the
period. Another system is slated to affect the area over the
weekend, with more rain chances increasing by Sunday for eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected with gusty winds from late morning
through early evening. Low chance of high based convection into NE
OK late tonight but no aviation impacts expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  82 101  78 /   0   0  30  20
FSM  100  79 100  78 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   98  78  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  103  78  98  73 /   0  10  30  30
FYV   97  76  95  73 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   99  77  96  73 /   0   0  20  30
MKO   98  78  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   99  79  98  73 /   0  10  20  30
F10  100  78  99  75 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   97  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-054-058-059-063>065-068-069-072>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ055>057-060>062-066-067-070-071.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07