852
FXUS64 KTSA 170206 CCA
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
906 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 904 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

It`s been relatively quiet across much of the forecast area this
afternoon and thus far this evening. A remnant MCV, currently
situated over southwest MO, is causing thunderstorms across
northern AR, just east of the forecast area. These storms are
aided by modest WAA taking place ahead of the MCV. Trends in the
hi-res model guidance suggest storms will build westward across
far northwest AR, best chances in Carroll and Madison counties,
over the next few hours. In addition to locally heavy rainfall,
damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be the primary
threats with any organized storm.

Consistency in CAMs indicate additional storms developing across
northeast OK and northwest AR after midnight tonight, likely due
to a combination of a strengthening low-level jet and the approach of
a southward-advancing frontal boundary. The highest chances of
precipitation should remain north of the I-40 corridor (along and
just north of the frontal boundary) through much of the overnight
period, but isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop
south of I-40 closer to daybreak tomorrow morning as the front
continues to push south. Instability and 0-6 km shear are
expected to decrease through as the night progresses, which should
limit the severe potential. However, cannot completely rule out a
few strong to severe storms, capable of producing marginally
severe hail/wind gusts, with the stronger updrafts that occur. In
addition, a flooding potential will exist overnight as locally
heavy rainfall appears likely with heavier/training thunderstorms,
particularly across northeast OK and northwest AR.

The main changes that were made to this update were to adjust the
PoPs through 12z. Additional adjustments will likely be needed
through the night.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Storm chances will persist while trending southward into
Thursday as the front continues a southward push. This will also
mark the beginning of a prolonged stretch of below normal
temperatures that will persist into at least early next week. The
pattern of high amplitude ridging in the western CONUS and
persistent downstream trough over the plains will result in
essentially daily rain and thunderstorm chances, with a possible
uptick in coverage over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage overnight,
especially across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas,
as a frontal boundary sags south across the area. Showers and
storms will diminish Wednesday morning, with additional storms
possible later Wednesday afternoon, which may impact KMLC and
KFSM. VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  76  88  70 /  10  60  40  10
FSM   99  79  92  73 /  20  50  50  50
MLC   99  77  90  70 /  20  40  30  40
BVO   99  71  90  64 /  10  50  40  10
FYV   98  73  87  67 /  20  70  60  30
BYV   98  72  86  66 /  20  70  70  30
MKO   97  76  88  69 /  10  50  40  30
MIO   97  72  86  65 /  10  50  50  10
F10   99  74  88  68 /  10  50  40  30
HHW   98  78  95  70 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05