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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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575 FXUS64 KTSA 170832 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 332 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Widespread showers and storms are ongoing early this morning with the strongest storms along and north of the stationary frontal boundary extending across NE OK into far NW AR. A broad fetch of warm moist advection is ongoing across the region downstream from the remnant MCV located over SW KS. Expect the ongoing showers and storms to continue to expand eastward through the early morning hours with the heaviest rains eventually moving into NW AR supporting the continuation of the watch area. A brief lull in precip coverage is expected by early afternoon, however additional storms are likely as the aforementioned MCV will move nearer the region and the cold front and/or composite outflow boundary acts to focus new storms. Higher storm chances by mid afternoon will be along and south of Interstate 40 with these storms continuing into the evening and possible overnight hours as the sfc boundary makes slow progress southward. A few strong to severe storms along with locally heavy rains will remain possible. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Showers and storm chances will linger across far SE OK into Thursday before the cold front finally clears the local forecast area. Dry and cooler weather expected Friday. The weather pattern over the weekend into early next week will feature persistent troughing aloft extending through the southern Plains. Precip chances return as early as Saturday across NE OK and expand area wide by Sunday as the trough axis settles through the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along with below normal temperatures will extend through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Main impacts to terminals in the short term will be thunderstorms during the overnight and morning hours. Storms are expected to develop shortly across NE OK sites and spread into NW AR sites through the night. Storm chances decrease to the south but will be possible for those sites during the mid morning hours. Main impacts will be reductions in visibility and lighting. Storms should clear the area by late morning with lesser chances at more thunderstorms development across SE OK and WC AR Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will come around northerly behind a frontal boundary, but will be noticeably lighter than recent days. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 71 90 67 / 50 10 0 0 FSM 90 73 90 69 / 80 20 20 0 MLC 88 70 88 67 / 50 30 20 0 BVO 89 66 89 62 / 40 10 0 0 FYV 87 67 87 62 / 80 20 10 0 BYV 86 67 85 61 / 80 10 10 0 MKO 87 70 88 66 / 60 20 10 0 MIO 88 66 85 62 / 40 0 0 0 F10 88 69 88 65 / 50 20 10 0 HHW 93 71 85 69 / 50 50 40 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>064-066>070. AR...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...04