![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
850 FXUS64 KTSA 171748 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1038 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 MCV, currently located over north-central Oklahoma will drift into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. This feature, coupled with approaching cold front, should allow scattered storms to develop, mainly south of I-40. A few marginally severe storms will be possible across far southeast Oklahoma where instability will be maximized, however high clouds will limit heating to some extent. PWATs will remain near 2.00 inches along/south of front with locally heavy rainfall likely with any of the stronger storms. Current short term forecast generally on track but a few changes possible into the afternoon as convective trends become more certain. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Showers and storm chances will linger across far SE OK into Thursday before the cold front finally clears the local forecast area. Dry and cooler weather expected Friday. The weather pattern over the weekend into early next week will feature persistent troughing aloft extending through the southern Plains. Precip chances return as early as Saturday across NE OK and expand area wide by Sunday as the trough axis settles through the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along with below normal temperatures will extend through early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Scattered showers will remain possible for the next few hours across NE OK/NW AR TAF sites with brief MVFR ceilings. An isolated thunderstorm or two could also impact KMLC/KFSM terminals through the afternoon and will continue TEMPO groups at those locations. Otherwise, conditions will slowly improve from north to south with clouds lifting in most areas as frontal boundary pushes to near the Red River by 00Z. Low clouds could persist or redevelop around KFSM this evening where the deeper moisture may linger before drier air filters in early Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 90 65 89 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 73 90 69 89 / 20 20 0 0 MLC 70 88 67 88 / 30 20 0 0 BVO 66 89 62 88 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 67 87 62 86 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 67 85 61 84 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 70 88 66 87 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 66 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 F10 69 88 65 88 / 20 10 0 0 HHW 71 85 69 86 / 50 40 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12