![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
904 FXUS64 KTSA 171926 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 226 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 MCV continues to slowly drift SSE toward southeast OK this afternoon. Cluster of showers has been persistent in the vicinity of this feature and this trend will likely continue through the evening. Extensive cloud cover has kept temps considerably cooler today, and has also limited instability somewhat. Should still ultimately see at least scattered storms develop south of I-40 into this evening, with perhaps a few marginally severe storms. Also, with PWAT values analyzed near 2 inches in the vicinity of the MCV, pockets of heavy rainfall may occur. Overall expected trend will be for precip chances to move southward with time overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Aside from some lingering chance of showers across far southeast sections of the forecast area Thursday, a quiet stretch of weather expected through Friday with below normal temperatures as a drier airmass moves in behind the clod front. The anticipated pattern will begin to favor a return to periodic thunderstorm chances beginning Saturday as longwave troughing pattern establishes over the plains into the first half of next week. The severe weather threat should remain low, but some potential for locally heavy rainfall will exist. This will also keep temperatures below average for several days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Scattered showers will remain possible for the next few hours across NE OK/NW AR TAF sites with brief MVFR ceilings. An isolated thunderstorm or two could also impact KMLC/KFSM terminals through the afternoon and will continue TEMPO groups at those locations. Otherwise, conditions will slowly improve from north to south with clouds lifting in most areas as frontal boundary pushes to near the Red River by 00Z. Low clouds could persist or redevelop around KFSM this evening where the deeper moisture may linger before drier air filters in early Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 70 87 64 89 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 73 88 68 89 / 40 20 0 0 MLC 70 86 66 89 / 50 20 0 0 BVO 65 86 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 66 85 60 85 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 65 84 61 83 / 20 10 0 0 MKO 70 87 64 88 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 65 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 F10 69 87 64 88 / 30 10 0 0 HHW 71 83 68 88 / 70 40 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...12